Cubs vs Padres — Okay, we’re here. The playoffs.
This upcoming three-game Wild Card series was not the preferred first postseason appearance for the Cubs this year (Milwaukee stole that one from us), but it’s the one we’ve got, and I’m excited nonetheless. Plus, the Brewers are sitting there waiting for the Cubs to kick them out if Craig Counsell can find a way to win a couple more day games at Wrigley Field.
Speaking of which, the Cubs were 50-31 (.617 W%) at home this season, while the Padres were 38-43 on the road. But funny enough, the Cubs and Padres were an even 3-3 against each other (the Cubs took two of three at Wrigley and vice versa in San Diego), with both teams scoring/allowing exactly 25 runs over those six games.
Nick Pivetta is taking the mound for the Padres, and Brett discussed that decision in detail earlier this week:
The Cubs’ Game One mound opponent will be Nick Pivetta, the 32-year-old righty who finally broke through this season to fulfill the potential lots of teams had seen for a long time. His 2.87 ERA was 29% better than league average by ERA-, was tied for the 9th best in baseball, and has been pretty consistent throughout the season. The Cubs faced Pivetta twice this year, but all the way back in April. They got to him at Wrigley Field, and then he dominated them in San Diego. Generally speaking, Pivetta is going to get his strikeouts, and he’s not going to walk you. So you have to hit your way into success against him. (And you REALLY want to have your success against the Padres’ starting pitcher on any given day, because Adrian Morejon, Jeremiah Estrada, Robert Suarez, and Mason Miller are waiting for you in the final four innings.)
I’ll add that Pivetta didn’t finish the season especially strong, with the Mets and Brewers combining to score 6 earned runs on 11 hits and 5 walks against 10Ks in just 10.1 IP. His fastball velocity seems to be waning, too:
I’ll also add that for his career as a whole (especially each of the last two seasons), Pivetta has been a reverse-split righty (meaning right-handed batters have hit him better than lefties). But I don’t think that’ll ultimately impact the Cubs lineup decisions much (if at all).
As of today, we don’t yet know who the Padres will start in Game 2, but it’s likely to be either Michael King (3.44 ERA over 15 starts, last pitched on September 27) or Dylan Cease (4.55 ERA, 3.56 FIP over 32 starts, last pitched on September 24). Neither guy has been as good this season as they have been in the past, but both have been VERY VERY good in the past with about as much single-game upside as any starter out there (minus the true, true aces). We’ll cover them both in greater depth when the announcements are made, as well as before each game, as usual.
The Cubs have been similarly opaque about who’s starting any of these games, though the recent injury to Cade Horton simplified the decision quite a bit. And if I had to guess, the first two games will be started (in some order) by Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd, with Jameson Taillon waiting for game three.
The Cubs have also discussed the possibility of using an opener for either/both of these games, which is a whole other discussion Brett also got into earlier today. Personally, I don’t love it, but I do understand the logic and am ready to cheer for whoever takes the mound for the first inning.
To that end, there is one thing to note: The San Diego Padres have been much worse against lefties (96 wRC+, 17th in MLB) than they have against righties (105 wRC+, 11th) this season, making the argument to go with the slightly struggling lefties (Boyd, Imanaga) over the hotter hand (Taillon) a bit easier to make.
With all of that said, the Padres have been a LOT better against lefties in the second half of the season (106 wRC+) than they were in the first half (90 wRC+). So it’ll still be a grind for Boyd/Imanaga nonetheless.
Offensively, the Cubs have started to come to life and at just the right time.
Seiya Suzuki finished his season riding a seven-game hitting streak, with FIVE homers in his final four games. He’s very streaky, so that’s a potentially enormous development for the Cubs. Michael Busch finished the season like an MVP candidate, slashing .299/.385/.776 (208 wRC+) with six doubles, a triple, and eight home runs in his last 78 plate appearances. All while striking out at just a 20.5% clip. Even Pete Crow-Armstrong began turning things around a little bit over his last 50 PAs, with two doubles and three homers to go along with a .261 batting average. He didn’t draw a single walk over that stretch, though, which is not ideal for a guy with his speed. Still two homers over the last three games gives me some hope. Homers in the playoffs are everything. Ian Happ is another guy who finished strong, slashing .307/.394/.579 (168 wRC+) since August 26, and that includes 10 doubles, 7 homers, and a 12.1% walk rate. And, as you should know, Nico Hoerner put together one HELL of a second-half, slashing .317/.365/.418 (122 wRC+). He’s hit for average, he’s walked more than usual, and he’s hitting for more power (albeit mostly doubles) than he ever has before.On the whole, the Cubs do have some hot hands heading into this series.
The biggest wild card (for the Wild Card series), of course, is Kyle Tucker, who managed to get into just three games’ worth of action before the regular season ended. He might be the best hitter the Cubs have … or he might be too injured to hit like his usual self. Total unknown, and it’s a shame it’s come to that. I’m hoping for the best, though. It’s Kyle Tucker, after all.
The smaller wild card, but still a potentially important part of the roster, is Moises Ballesteros, who had been hitting very well in Tucker’s absence. He’s unlikely to draw a start, but I do think he’ll get a key pinch-hitting opportunity or two this week. We’ll just have to see.
Both of these games are day games at Wrigley Field (and Game 3 will be too, if needed). They’ll be broadcast on ABC. And I very much hope this is not the last series preview I write this season.
Go Cubs. Let’s do it. I want to get through this series so we can knock the Brewers’ teeth in.
Cubs vs Padres – Pitching Probables:
Game 1: Tuesday, September 30 at 2:08 PM CT at Wrigley FieldBroadcast Info: ABC, 670 The Score, ESPN Radio (Nationals)
Cubs: TBD (Imanaga/Boyd) … maybe an opener Padres: Nick Pivetta, RHPGame 2: Wednesday, October 1 at 2:08 PM CT at Wrigley FieldBroadcast Info: ABC, 670 The Score, ESPN Radio (National)
Cubs: (Imanaga/Boyd) … maybe an opener Padres: Cease/KingGame 3: Thursday, October 2 at 2:08 PM CT at Wrigley FieldBroadcast Info: ABC, 670 The Score, ESPN Radio (National)
Cubs: Jameson Taillon, RHP Padres: Cease/KingCubs vs Padres – Key Injuries:
Chicago Cubs:
Owen Caissie, OF Miguel Amaya, C Ryan Brasier, RP Cade Horton, RHP Justin Steele, LHPSan Diego Padres:
Ramon Laureano, OF Jason Adam, RP Nestor Cortes, SP Joe Musgrove, SP Jhony Brito, RP © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn ImagesHence then, the article about nl wild card preview cubs vs padres at wrigley field was published today ( ) and is available on Bleacher Nation ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
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