The small Eastern European state of 2.4 million people is currently on the path to EU membership, having applied to join in the wake of Russia’s invasion of its neighbour Ukraine.
On Sunday, voters will renew the 101 seats of the Moldovan parliament, choosing between the governing pro-European Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) and the Patriotic Electoral Bloc (BEP), a group of pro-Russian opposition parties.
“The Kremlin believes that we are all for sale. That we are too small to resist. That we are not a country, only a territory,” she said on Monday. “But Moldova is our home. And our home is not for sale.”
Moldovan President Maia Sandu said ‘Moldova is our home. And our home is not for sale’ (Photo: Vladislav Culiomza/Reuters)
Dodon was unseated by Sandu as president in 2020, but polls suggest PAS could lose its majority in parliament this time round, forcing it to seek a coalition with smaller entities.
Thirty-six candidates have been struck from the ballot following the decision. Party leader Irina Vlah was sanctioned by some EU countries this week on suspicion of assisting Russian interference.
“With the interference, it is possible that pro-Russia forces can win,” said Orysia Lutsevych OBE, deputy director of the Russia and Eurasia programme at the Chatham House think-tank. “The Moldovan electoral field is completely toxic – it’s not free and fair.”
Moldova’s Prime Minister Dorin Recean shakes hands with supporters during a pro-EU rally. He has claimed the Kremlin plans to deploy a further 10,000 troops to Transnistria (Photo: Vadim Ghirda/AP)
Emily Ferris, senior research fellow in the International Security Studies department at the Royal United Services Institute think-tank, warned: “Moldova has a long history of shaky parliamentary coalitions and governments that collapse before their terms of office end.”
“Russia is not achieving any of its political objectives,” she added. “So, it’s looking for new opportunities. The current Kremlin regime is very opportunistic.”
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“The worst-case scenario is Moldova becomes Belarus: its territory is used for war in Ukraine, it has a puppet regime that is controlled by the Kremlin; its ties with the West are severed, and there is political prosecution of the opponents and the rest of people.”
Lukashenko allowed Putin to use Belarus as a base to invade Ukraine three years ago, and has moved ever closer to his neighbour in the period since, relying on Russia for more than half of the county’s foreign trade.
In June, Moldova’s Prime Minister, Dorin Recean, claimed the Kremlin had plans to deploy a further 10,000 troops to the territory, which shares a 450km border with Ukraine.
Sandu has warned that the result could also have serious defence implications for Moldova’s neighbours to the West.
A campaign tent of the Patriotic Electoral Bloc, a group of pro-Russian opposition parties, in Chisinau (Photo: Vadim Ghirda/AP)
There are significant fears that Kremlin-backed agitators could spark disorder on the streets if the pro-Russian bloc loses the vote on Sunday.
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“There could be scope for social violence if Russia continues to support protests against the government – by paying protesters well. Mobilising them en masse could create problems for the police and could escalate in an uncontrolled manner,” Ferris said.
“They could use proxy groups and special military intelligence officers to destabilise Moldova,” she added.
“It would be another failure, fiasco, and hopefully lead to the eroding of Putin’s power and his image with Russian elites,” she said. “If they cannot take over small Moldova – where they have energy problems, rising prices, some Russian sympathetic population, along with enclaves like Transnistria – then it would be big slap to the face of the Kremlin strategy.”
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