Fed talk roundup: Hammack says inflation is a bigger problem than jobs ...Middle East

I'll stick to just the highlights and meaningful comments. Hammack has been in a hawk in the past but really doubled down today:

We should be very cautious in removing policy restrictionI expected 4.3% unemployment to 'rise a bit' but we're near full employment nowWe are missing inflation by a more-meaningful numberI have one of the highest estimates of neutral, and believe we're only modestly neutralLayoff notices have not been trending upThere are signs of fragility in the jobs marketIf we remove restrictions too quickly, I am worried about inflationLikely to see inflation continuing to riseLower income households are struggling

Miran spoke on Friday but dove a bit deeper into his thinking on rates:

Policy is 'considerably restrictive' and 'very restrictive'Short term rates are roughly 200 bps too highExpects H2 and early 2026 growth to improve

Barkin:

Wage pressure is steadily coming downExpect workforce growth this year to be close to flatExpect the current low-hiring, low-firing labor market to continue but could break in either directionBusiness optimism has ticked back upLow unemployment, wage gains and stock prices all supporting consumer spending

Barkin sounds upbeat and he's often a good gauge for the core of the Fed's thinking.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

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