That bit about securing peace was a nod to Trump’s fancied self-image as a peace-maker, but it was a high-stakes move. The President nodded lightly, possibly grunted, but didn’t demur. The next day, at a press conference with Sir Keir Starmer, Trump himself chastised the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, saying, “he’s really let me down”.
What Trump really hates is a “loser”. And Putin is not winning the war he started by invading Ukraine three and a half years ago. As Trump said in Britain: “Putin is killing more people, and he is losing more people than he is killing.”
“If Putin thinks Russia is winning, his definition of winning and my definition of winning are absolutely two different things,” Kellogg said at a security conference in Kyiv this week. “If he [was] winning he’d be west of the Dnipro River. If he was winning, he’d be in Odessa… Russia is, in fact, losing this war.”
Ukrainians jokingly call the special envoy St Kellogg because Putin doesn’t dare to bomb Kyiv when he is in town. But his advice is having an impact on the person who matters most in Washington.
There are over 700,000 Russian soldiers on the frontline with Ukraine, Putin told Russian parliamentarians this week. Yet they still can’t win against a country one twenty-eighth of its size.
I’m reminded of Blackadder Goes Forth, when First World War General Melchett, played by Stephen Fry, examines a small patch of “recaptured” turf at his HQ.
In Russia, a nationalist blogger with the pen-name Maxim Kalashnikov has claimed: “We came to ‘liberate’ Russian regions but we’ve turned them into ruins.” He suggested that any attempt to seize big cities, like Odessa, would turn into a “meat grinder” and concluded, “We’ll just wear ourselves out if we start another mobilisation.”
So what’s the game plan? Putin still thinks he can win a war of attrition but Ukrainian missiles have been blowing up oil refineries deep in Russian territory, damaging the Russian economy, while he is the bad guy slaughtering Ukrainian civilians.
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Putin should have seized the opportunity to make peace that was offered in Alaska. Ukrainians want an end to the killing and would have accepted difficult terms. Now the Russian leader is stuck in a “forever war” of the kind Trump despises.
Trump’s post was criticised as a delaying tactic but Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission President, was forced to agree that, yes, Europe could do more on this score. “Russia’s war economy, sustained by revenues from fossil fuels, is financing the bloodshed in Ukraine,” she stated.
Trump is teetering on the edge of giving up on Putin. He can’t be allowed to give up on Ukraine.
Sarah Baxter is director of the Marie Colvin Center for International Reporting
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