Why RBC remains upbeat on Canadian economy, sees no BOC cut ...Middle East

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The market is 95% priced in for a Bank of Canada rate cut but the country's largest bank says it's unnecessary. Now I strongly suspect they will flip that call by the time Wednesday rolls around -- particularly if core inflation dips in tomorrow's Canadian CPI report -- but they're staking out some interesting territory at a time when the market (and myself) are increasingly worried about Canada.

Q2 GDP was weak, but July trade and manufacturing gains plus stronger early Q3 data point to a rebound RBC card spend tracking suggests consumer demand holding up (there should be a new report this week)Housing showing early signs of life (August sales rose y/y in data released today)88% of exports still tariff-free under USMCAFiscal supports ramping up, layoffs limited

The big risk they see is a further US slowdown but highlight that the Bank of Canada -- at 2.75% currently -- has ammunition to cut if the economy slows.

The Canadian dollar is the strongest G10 performer today as it gets a lift from rising gold prices but USD/CAD has traded in a 200-pip range for the past six weeks. The daily chart looks like it could be cooking up a head-and-shoulders top with a target of the lows of the year. The pairs has fallen nearly 10 full figures since the start of the year.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

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