Starmer’s allies believe Burnham is eyeing up the seat currently held by suspended Labour MP Andrew Gwynne as a platform to challenge for the party leadership. Party rules would require Burnham to be a sitting MP before he would be eligible for any leadership race. Sources have questioned, however, whether Labour can even hold on to the seat.
Gwynne was suspended from Labour in February, this year – and is understood to be off sick after sexist messages he sent on a Whatsapp chat were revealed. Gwynne had allegedly said he hoped a 72-year-old woman would soon be dead after she wrote to her local councillor about bin collections, and allegedly joked about a constituent being “mown down” by a truck.
square BY-ELECTION ExclusiveBurnham leadership 'plot' could be killed off by Reform before it even begins
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After his two worst weeks in office, Starmer’s premiership is on its knees, with his own internal critics now publicly putting a timeline on how long it can last. He faces being ousted after May’s elections in Scotland, Wales and large parts of England unless he changes course, Labour left-wingers Diane Abbott and Richard Burgon warned on Monday.
But the trouble for Starmer is that the despondent mood among his MPs isn’t limited to his left-wing critics. Ahead of Labour’s Liverpool party conference at the end of next week, both MPs and grassroots are questioning whether the chaotic departures of Angela Rayner and Peter Mandelson are fundamental markers of Starmer’s political judgment, his vision for the country, and even his basic competence.
Before he became prime minister, Johnson spent years displaying main character energy in a self-created soap opera at Conservative conference to remind the party’s membership what they were missing. Greeted at the train station by camera crews and once hiding from reporters in a pre-fab press office, he gave every impression of enjoying himself – even if the prime ministers he was trolling, didn’t. Nonetheless, his boosterism was often welcomed by Tories keen to feel good about themselves. In some Labour quarters, Burnham’s glass-half-full-King-of-the-North-Oasis-revival-tour persona makes him an attractive contrast to Starmer gloomy legal instincts.
square POLITICS Starmer 'on notice' - as PM's allies turn on Burnham over leadership 'plot'
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“There are enough in the NEC who would know without being asked if No 10 wants them to block Burnham – and do so. However, that would be a significant decision and it would mean No 10 going to war with the party membership,” a senior Labour Party source told The i Paper. “What is being talked about is whether a deal could be struck that Andy can put himself forward and let Keir serve a full term as Prime Minister and promise not to stand against him before the general election.”
Burnham also lost Labour leadership elections in 2010 and 2015 and isn’t necessarily a shoo-in to become Labour leader, even if Starmer is forced out. Supporters of Wes Streeting will push for him if a leadership challenge arises, but the Health Secretary would represent an even more Blairite direction. Labour MPs say they are tired of what they see as the right-wing group around Starmer, including No 10 Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney.
The Gorton by-election is the best chance Burnham has of entering Parliament before the general election, with party sources arguing his brand is so tied to the city he represents, he would have to stand in or near Manchester: they say a chicken-run to a safe seat in any other part of the country would seem “ridiculous” and no other northwestern seats are likely to become vacant.
“Gorton and Denton is the central piece of the puzzle in holding the Red Wall. It’s the most Metropolitan seat in that area and if it falls, we are in danger of losing the whole Penine belt,” a Labour source said. “It’s a very difficult decision for the party, but Andy is probably the only person who could hold it for us.”
Another Labour MP – no fan of Burnham – said: “Imagine he gives up the mayoralty to stand as an MP, only to lose to Farage. That would be the bantz outcome.”
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