If you believe the polling, Sir Keir Starmer doesn’t have a choice. The flailing Prime Minister must hold his nose and allow Andy Burnham to stand in the inevitable Gorton and Denton by-election, knowing the Greater Manchester Mayor is the only hope Labour has of holding on to the seat against Reform UK.
Starmer’s allies believe Burnham is eyeing up the seat currently held by suspended Labour MP Andrew Gwynne as a platform to challenge for the party leadership. Party rules would require Burnham to be a sitting MP before he would be eligible for any leadership race. Sources have questioned, however, whether Labour can even hold on to the seat.
Although on paper, Labour has a majority of over 13,000, party strategists worry the constituency’s Muslim population may well punish the ruling party over Gaza, while its white working-class population simultaneously flocks to Reform.
Gwynne was suspended from Labour in February, this year – and is understood to be off sick after sexist messages he sent on a Whatsapp chat were revealed. Gwynne had allegedly said he hoped a 72-year-old woman would soon be dead after she wrote to her local councillor about bin collections, and allegedly joked about a constituent being “mown down” by a truck.
The i Paper understands the former minister has now applied to the House of Commons authorities to retire on medical grounds – Gwynne has declined to comment – but no progress towards any departure date has been set. This gives No 10 some breathing space before having to decide who to select for the seat. A source said the committee is “not moving apace, which frankly suits everybody right now.”
square BY-ELECTION ExclusiveBurnham leadership 'plot' could be killed off by Reform before it even begins
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After his two worst weeks in office, Starmer’s premiership is on its knees, with his own internal critics now publicly putting a timeline on how long it can last. He faces being ousted after May’s elections in Scotland, Wales and large parts of England unless he changes course, Labour left-wingers Diane Abbott and Richard Burgon warned on Monday.
Taken in isolation, Burgon and Abbott – both long-standing critics – are unreliable narrators of the danger Starmer faces. Loyalist Baroness Jacqui Smith was deployed to point out to BBC Breakfast: “Richard Burgon has never supported this Prime Minister.” Asked if Burnham would do a better job as leader, her reply was as bland as it was damning. “Er, no,” she said.
But the trouble for Starmer is that the despondent mood among his MPs isn’t limited to his left-wing critics. Ahead of Labour’s Liverpool party conference at the end of next week, both MPs and grassroots are questioning whether the chaotic departures of Angela Rayner and Peter Mandelson are fundamental markers of Starmer’s political judgment, his vision for the country, and even his basic competence.
Meanwhile, No 10 is braced for Burnham to pop up in Liverpool as a rallying point for a change of direction. Some see Burnham as the Labour equivalent of Boris Johnson – who built up a power base as London mayor outside of Westminster.
Before he became prime minister, Johnson spent years displaying main character energy in a self-created soap opera at Conservative conference to remind the party’s membership what they were missing. Greeted at the train station by camera crews and once hiding from reporters in a pre-fab press office, he gave every impression of enjoying himself – even if the prime ministers he was trolling, didn’t. Nonetheless, his boosterism was often welcomed by Tories keen to feel good about themselves. In some Labour quarters, Burnham’s glass-half-full-King-of-the-North-Oasis-revival-tour persona makes him an attractive contrast to Starmer gloomy legal instincts.
However, working on the assumption that possession of No 10 is nine-tenths of political law, there is an alternative discussion under way at the heart of Government. Burnham knows he can’t be guaranteed that Labour’s National Executive Committee – majority loyal to Starmer – would usher him into place as the party’s preferred candidate for Gorton.
square POLITICS Starmer 'on notice' - as PM's allies turn on Burnham over leadership 'plot'
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“There are enough in the NEC who would know without being asked if No 10 wants them to block Burnham – and do so. However, that would be a significant decision and it would mean No 10 going to war with the party membership,” a senior Labour Party source told The i Paper. “What is being talked about is whether a deal could be struck that Andy can put himself forward and let Keir serve a full term as Prime Minister and promise not to stand against him before the general election.”
But don’t hold your breath any pact is imminent. “There is a level of trust implied in that deal and trust is sorely lacking between the two sides,” the source added. Despite a historically positive working relationship – Burnham supported Starmer’s 2019 bid for Labour leader – tensions subsequently developed; Burnham publicly accused Starmer’s advisors of negative briefings in 2023.
Burnham also lost Labour leadership elections in 2010 and 2015 and isn’t necessarily a shoo-in to become Labour leader, even if Starmer is forced out. Supporters of Wes Streeting will push for him if a leadership challenge arises, but the Health Secretary would represent an even more Blairite direction. Labour MPs say they are tired of what they see as the right-wing group around Starmer, including No 10 Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney.
Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood could also theoretically stand in any future battle to replace Starmer. But right now, some Labour MPs are rallying behind Burnham after his allies set up Mainstream – a new soft-left campaign platform which has called on Starmer to end the two-child benefit rule, introduce wealth taxes and nationalise utility companies.
The Gorton by-election is the best chance Burnham has of entering Parliament before the general election, with party sources arguing his brand is so tied to the city he represents, he would have to stand in or near Manchester: they say a chicken-run to a safe seat in any other part of the country would seem “ridiculous” and no other northwestern seats are likely to become vacant.
For Labour MPs nervously eyeing their future, balancing who can see off Reform is a key concern. Last week, the Red Wall group of Labour MPs held a hustings for Labour’s deputy leadership candidates. They had one fundamental question: how would you help us defeat Reform in our constituencies? On Monday, as Nigel Farage welcomed sitting Tory MP Danny Kruger into his party, Labour found it could not tear its eyes away from the threat from Reform.
“Gorton and Denton is the central piece of the puzzle in holding the Red Wall. It’s the most Metropolitan seat in that area and if it falls, we are in danger of losing the whole Penine belt,” a Labour source said. “It’s a very difficult decision for the party, but Andy is probably the only person who could hold it for us.”
Another Labour MP – no fan of Burnham – said: “Imagine he gives up the mayoralty to stand as an MP, only to lose to Farage. That would be the bantz outcome.”
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