He had his first overseas break in three years back in May – but since then has not been away. And so he has been capitalising on the fact that government ministers – who are totally exhausted – have gone quiet for a few weeks. While they’ve been trying to rest and remember what their families look like, Farage has been hammering home Reform’s message on asylum hotels and deportations. It’s working.
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It would be much easier to attack Farage if Labour offered a sense that it knows what it’s doing and is managing to get a grip on the migrant crisis. The Prime Minister himself does not project confidence on the issue: he has spent the past few months wondering out loud whether he should have read out a line about Britain turning into an “island of strangers” in one of his own speeches. It underlined that Keir Starmer doesn’t really know what he thinks his party’s policies should be, and that he is only able to acknowledge that there is a huge political problem, but go no further in tackling it.
This change, which was set to be implemented this summer, would be delayed if, as is expected, the French government loses a confidence vote on 8 September. It is a matter even further out of the control of Starmer’s Government than the migrant crisis, and the chances are pretty slim of ministers persuading a new administration in Paris to make a deal on boats a priority.
They won’t be particularly pleased to have managed this, but the Tories have contributed to Labour’s troubles on this topic. If both parties have failed to answer the question of how to stop the boats, then Reform is much better able to dismiss any proposals that seem moderate and considered as just being the same tinkering that’s led to so many boats landing, and so much noise about asylum accommodation.
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But it is also because both Conservatives and Labour have now offered ample evidence to the electorate that they really don’t know how to deal with the migrant crisis in a way that goes beyond big speeches and eye-catching proposals.
Labour has an instinctive fear of questioning big international institutions, but its voters don’t. Until it is able to think in the way those voters do, it will always find itself following Farage, rather than setting the agenda as the Government.
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