ING believes USD weakness paves the way for EURUSD to 1.20 ...Middle East

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Fed outlook: Expects three consecutive 25bp cuts (Sept, Oct, Dec 2025), with more easing in 2026, bringing the Fed’s terminal rate down to 3.25%.

USD pressure: Cheaper hedging costs from Fed cuts should trigger more USD selling, alongside seasonal weakness and the risk of a new Fed chair in 2026.

Eurozone story: Fiscal expansion in Germany could deliver 2% growth through 2026, adding euro support and possibly leading the ECB to tighten ahead of the Fed.

Risks:

US jobs market shows resilience.

US tariffs on the EU dampen sentiment.

The pair is currently just over 3 big figures away from 1.20. That's also close to the double-top highs the pair got to back in 2021.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.

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