Securing territorial concessions could lead to Russia’s invasion of Moldova and its acceleration of hybrid attacks on the Baltic states
The phrase is understood to be shorthand for a series of maximalist demands aimed at addressing Russia’s diminished status since the collapse of the Soviet Union, in addition to international recognition of Russia’s occupation of Ukrainian land.
But Putin would not necessarily stop at Ukraine in his bid to restore Russia to superpower status, say experts. Instead, he would use a peace deal in Ukraine to rebuild militarily before turning his attention to other former Soviet Union satellite states.
Donald Trump meets Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska last Friday (Photo: Kevin Lamarque/ Reuters“Putin will present a peace agreement as a victory,” Dr Neil Melvin, Director, International Security at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) think-tank in London, told The i Paper.
“He’s moved Russia onto a war economy. He’d be looking at the next time they could use force.”
“Apart from Ukraine, I think the next target could be Moldova,” she told The i Paper. “It would be very easy for the Russian army.”
It is not a Nato member, meaning Russia would not risk triggering a collective response from the 32-member alliance by invading.
The pro-Western Moldovan President, Maia Sandu (Photo: Vladislav Culiomza/ Reuters)But around 1,500 Russian soldiers are already based in part of the separatist region of Transnistria, which unilaterally declared independence from Moldova in 1990, with Moscow’s support.
In June, Moldova’s Prime Minister, Dorin Recean, claimed that Russia had plans to deploy a further 10,000 troops in Transnistria, citing intelligence assessments.
The European Union claimed that last year’s presidential contest – in which Moldova’s pro-EU President Maia Sandu claimed a second term – saw “unprecedented interference” from Russia, including voter fraud.
Expect hybrid warfare with Nato in the Baltics
Putin’s mission to reclaim former Soviet territories could also bring the Baltic states – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, which all border Russia and were formerly rules by it – within his sights, though all three are Nato members.
“I don’t think Putin would be trying to attack them directly, in the way he might attack Moldova,” she said. “It would be more like asymmetrical warfare.”
Moscow would use look to test Nato’s commitment to Article Five, the principle that all members will come to the defence of an ally that comes under attack, Ms Glod said.
The Ivangorod Fortress in Narva, Estonia, right on the eastern border with Russia (Photo: Sean Gallup/Getty Images)“But at the same time, countries like Spain or Portugal, which are less alarmed about their Russian aggression and farther away, would dispute whether it reached the threshold level.
If the Kremlin sensed a significant fracture within Nato, a minor incursion of a Baltic country could follow, Dr Melvin said.
But attacking the Baltic states directly would be an “enormous gamble,” he added, leaving Russia’s nuclear forces in the north of country vulnerable from attack by Finland, which is a Nato member and strong military power.
Trump with the, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, left, and Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, signing the ‘peace roadmap’ following their trilateral meeting at the White House this month (Photo: Azerbaijan Presidency/Anadolu via Getty Images)The three Caucasian countries were part of the Soviet Union until its collapse. In a visit to Azerbaijan last year, Putin said that Russia’s “historical involvement” in the region required an ongoing role in its affairs.
“The most direct challenge to Russia at the moment is really in the South Caucasus – the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process,” Dr Melvin said.
As part of that deal, the US will help build a major transit corridor connecting Azerbaijan to its autonomous Nakhchivan region, which is separated by Armenian territory.
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Read More“Russia has significant military assets inside Armenia…. so its whole presence in the region is threatened,” Dr Melvin said.
Ultimately, Putin’s next steps will by the shaped by the conditions of any peace deal in Ukraine – in particular whether it includes a strong security guarantee from the United States and its European allies, Dr Melvin said.
“The Ukrainians are not going to trust a political promise from Donald Trump. They’re going to need to see a legal treaty enforced by Congress and troops on the ground.”
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