AUSTIN (KXAN) -- Historic rainfall and flooding in early July caused significant rises in both Lake Travis and Lake Buchanan. Lake Buchanan filled up for the first time since 2019 and reached an elevation of 1020' for the first time since 2005.
Lake Travis rose to its highest level since September 2019, but has yet to fill up. The last time Lake Travis was considered "full" was in July of 2019.
New projection scenarios released
With the significant rises in our lakes now included, LCRA has released lake level projection scenarios under a variety of conditions for each lake and the combined storage of both lakes.
These scenarios are broken up into wetter and drier scenarios based on percentiles.
"Wet conditions" assume a period of weather where historically 25% of years were wetter, but 75% of years were drier. "Median conditions" assume a period of weather where historically 50% of years were wetter, but 50% of years were drier. "Dry conditions" assume a period of weather where historically 90% of years were wetter, but 10% of years were drier. "Extreme Dry conditions" assume a period of weather where historically 99% of years were wetter, but only 1% of years were drier.Lake Buchanan
Lake Buchanan was "full" on August 1st and should stay close to full if not remain full under "wet conditions" and "median conditions" through early 2026, according to LCRA. Only under the drier-than-normal scenarios does Lake Buchanan drop more significantly away from full by early next year.
Lake Travis
Lake Travis was ~91% full on August 1st and would reach "full" under "wet conditions" by November, according to LCRA. "Median conditions" would cause a brief dip followed by a gradual rise through the winter, but the drier-than-normal scenarios bring a steady decline in the elevation of Lake Travis through the fall and winter into 2026.
Combined storage of Lake Travis and Lake Buchanan
The results of the two above projection scenarios can be combined to focus on the overall storage of our two lakes that serve as the main water supply for Central Texas.
"Wet conditions" would lead to combined storage approaching "full" by early November, with "median conditions" also causing a gradual rise through the winter months.
Importantly, even the driest scenarios keep us well above Stage 1 drought contingency plans.
InDepth: What happens when Lake Travis fills up?
With Lake Buchanan close to full and Lake Travis not far behind, if Lake Travis fills up LCRA has a variety of plans depending on just how quickly water is coming into the lake and conditions downstream of Mansfield Dam.
BLOG: WHAT HAPPENS WHEN LAKE TRAVIS FILLS UP?We took an InDepth look at those contingencies in a blog a few weeks ago. Read about it in the link below.
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