Last weekend, the Yankees’ and Blue Jays’ hitters tried their best to help their respective aces gain some ground in the AL Cy Young race. Neither side had much luck. On Saturday, Cam Schlittler held Toronto to one run in 5 1/3 innings, striking out seven. The next day, it was Dylan Cease’s turn to dominate. He gave up two runs in 6 1/3, striking out 10 of the 24 batters he faced.
Much like he did against Toronto, Schlittler has consistently kept runs off the board all season. His latest start marked the 18th time he’s gone at least five frames without allowing more than one earned run. That’s more than two-thirds of his outings. Tarik Skubal only had 17 such starts when he won his first Cy Young in 2024. He only had 19 in 2025. And Schlittler still has seven or eight games left to pitch.
Cease ranks second to Schlittler in ERA, but his 201 strikeouts pace the American League. His double-digit punchout performance against the Yankees was his ninth of the season. It was the 15th time he struck out more than one-third of his opponents. He has always been a strikeout pitcher, but an improved changeup has helped him reach new heights of swing-and-miss dominance. In turn, all of the strikeouts have helped him post some truly outstanding ERA estimators. No qualified AL hurler has a lower FIP, xFIP, or xERA.
Of course, when it comes to the Cy Young, it’s ERA itself – not any of its more complicated cousins – that matters most. Nine of the last 10 winners had the lowest ERA in their respective leagues. The only exception was Sandy Alcantara in 2022. He managed to win the Cy with the NL’s second-lowest ERA because he threw so many more innings than any other pitcher that year. Given that precedent, it’s simple to understand why Schlittler has been the Cy Young favorite for months. He owns a league-best 2.19 ERA, and he’s only a few frames behind Michael Wacha for the AL lead in innings pitched.
Yet, Cease has been making the conversation far more interesting lately. Since returning from a brief IL stint in June, he has produced a sub-2.00 ERA in 12 starts. He held the Giants hitless through eight in his last start before the All-Star break. Two starts later, he shut down a red-hot Red Sox team in what was arguably the most dominant outing by an AL pitcher all season: 9 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 12 K.
Through the end of May, Cease’s ERA (3.05) was more than twice as high as Schlittler’s (1.50). Now, the gap between them is less than a quarter of a run. Cease is also averaging slightly more innings per start. With six weeks remaining in the season, he has time to close that ERA gap and make the difference between their inning counts negligible.
Schlittler has the head start. He would almost certainly win the AL Cy Young if the season ended today. But Cease has pitched better lately, his underlying metrics are equally impressive, and he has a much longer track record of success. That last point could be key. The 25-year-old Schlittler is playing his first full MLB season. He’s already thrown more innings than in any other year of his professional career. What he’s done so far is unbelievably impressive. However, he still has to prove he can finish what he’s started. Cease, on the other hand, already has a pair of top-five Cy Young finishes under his belt. Since 2021, no major league pitcher has started more games. The 30-year-old knows how to get through the rigors of the MLB season without giving in to fatigue. Indeed, his 3.27 ERA in September/October is his lowest in any month.
Cease and Schlittler aren’t the AL’s only aces. Sonny Gray of the Red Sox leads the American League with 15 wins. His 2.65 ERA would be the best of his career. Parker Messick of the Guardians might be leading the Rookie of the Year race in another season. His 2.59 ERA would be the lowest for a qualified AL rookie in 50 years. Drew Rasmussen of the Rays has kept runners off the bases like no one else. His opponents have a measly .247 OBP.
Yet, Schlittler and Cease hold the top two spots in ERA, xERA, FIP, SIERA, and every version of Wins Above Replacement. Schlittler’s ceiling is as high as anyone’s, while Cease is the picture of reliability. There’s still a chance an arm like Gray, Messick, or Rasmussen will surprise us, but as things stand, it’s hard to make a case for anyone other than Schlittler or Cease.
This weekend, the Yankees’ and Blue Jays’ hitters will get another chance to influence the AL Cy Young race. The two front-runners are both lined up to pitch in the Bronx: Schlittler on Friday night, and Cease the next afternoon. Before then, we’d like MLBTR readers to weigh in. Who do you think will win the AL Cy Young this season? Share your thoughts in the poll and the comments below.
Who will win the 2026 AL Cy Young?
Cam Schlittler Dylan Cease Other Vote Vote to see results Cam Schlittler 55% (35) Dylan Cease 33% (21) Other 13% (8)Total votes: 64
Thank you for voting!
Images courtesy of Nick Turchiaro and Wendell Cruz, Imagn Images.
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