Exam insiders have predicted this year’s students could be “slightly more academically able” than previous years, meaning more pupils are likely to get the grades they need for their university place.
Students in England, Northern Ireland and Wales will get their A-level results on Thursday.
And Lee Elliot Major, a professor of social mobility at Exeter University, said an uplift in A-level results means it will be “more competitive for getting into those highly selective institutions”.
There could be fewer places at top universities in clearance for pupils who missed their A-level grades (Photo: Chris Ison/PA Wire)Last year, 27.8 per cent of entries achieved A or A* grades, surpassing the former record of 27 per cent in 2010 and 2011.
In a report published ahead of results day, he said this year’s grades are “likely to be close to what they were in 2024”, adding that last year’s grade pattern “could be the start of a new normal”.
They have mused that despite this, many sixth forms held their entry requirements, potentially leading to a “slightly smaller, slightly smarter” cohort compared to the total number of 18-year-olds.
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She explained: “This cohort are the first to sit their level three qualifications, where they had the pre-pandemic standard reinstated on their GCSEs.
“So you can see in the data, it’s a slightly smaller A-level cohort than we’ve seen for a while, particularly in contrast to the size of the 18-year-old population. It probably means that there’s fractionally higher prior attainment across the cohort. This is me speculating, as a former chief regulator.”
“It really matters that this is a blip, not a trend,” he said. “If we get back on the grade inflation escalator, then you devalue the currency of the qualification.”
“It will be really challenging for some if you’ve dropped a grade, or if you haven’t quite got the grade that you predicted,” he told The i Paper.
He said: “If you’re a prestigious university, it’s dead easy to recruit and suck people up from elsewhere in the system. If you’re somewhat less prestigious, then you might get hit by all these things working their way through the system.
The latest Ucas data shows a record 94.5 per cent of applicants who applied by the January deadline had already received at least one offer.
But the organisation added that it was still expecting that “record numbers of students will get a place at university or college this year”, urging young people to have “plenty of confidence as we head into results day”.
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