UBS is anticipating tariffs impact to have a say in all this as they forecast core goods inflation to be at +0.38% m/m. That follows a +0.20% m/m reading in June. And the firm is locking in even stronger readings for the months ahead, with +0.60% in August, +0.76% in September, and +0.73% in October.
On this, they are citing a rebound in prices for airfares and lodging away from home. For some context, the former was seen down 0.11% with the latter down 2.89% back in June. UBS is anticipating a 1.0% monthly increase (vs +1.50% estimate) in prices for airfares and 0.90% increase (vs +0.06% estimate) for lodging away from home.
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