What to expect from the BOE policy decision coming up later? ...Middle East

While a 25 bps rate cut today is a given (markets pricing in ~93% odds), the voting split is expected to be anything but straightforward.

According to MNI's collage, here is the breakdown of 21 analyst calls going into the decision later:

50 bps rate cut: 11 analysts see two votes, 4 see one vote, 5 see no votes0 bps i.e. no rate change: 10 analysts see two votes, 1 sees either two or three votes, 4 see three votes, 4 see one vote, 2 see no votes

In arguing for a 50 bps rate cut, the camp is quite clear though. The two votes, if there is to be, should belong to Dhingra and Taylor. Ramsden might have dissented the last round but he was mainly arguing for quicker rate cuts, not bigger ones.

Either way, a 25 bps rate cut is very much expected and priced in. The question then becomes what will happen next? The bank rate vote will provide a better indication but there is likely only one more rate cut on the cards for the BOE. And that could take place in either November or December.

Here are a couple of calls before we get to the decision in just under an hour (h/t @ MNI):

Barclays: 2-5-2 vote (risk of 3-4-2), terminal rate of 3.50% in February 2026JP Morgan: 2-5-2 vote, terminal rate of 3.50% in Q1 2026HSBC: 2-4-3 vote (risk of 3-3-3), risk of hawkish surprise with following rate cut in NovemberBNP Paribas: 2-7-0 vote, terminal rate of 3.50% in Q1 2026Goldman Sachs: 1-6-2 vote, terminal rate of 3.00% in March 2026Deutsche: 2-5-2 vote, terminal rate of 3.25% in early 2026ING: 1-7-1 vote, terminal rate of 3.25% in Q2 2026Nomura: 2-5-2 vote, terminal rate of 3.50% in February 2026 This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Hence then, the article about what to expect from the boe policy decision coming up later was published today ( Thursday 07/08/2025 - 01:03 PM ) and is available on forex live ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.

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