Often lauded as one of Europe’s most exciting leagues, the Championship frequently provides the twists and turns every football fan desires. Here are some of the reasons you should be watching the Championship in 2025-26...
The Championship Is Very Difficult to Predict
The Opta supercomputer has tried predicting the outcome of the 2025-26 Championship season, but it’s not an easy task.
As we stated in our Championship season predictions article, each of the 24 clubs finished bottom of the league at least 12 times across the 10,000 Opta supercomputer simulations, while every team won the title in a minimum of 104 scenarios.
Last season, the supercomputer correctly predicted two of the relegated sides but backed Luton Town as fifth favourites for automatic promotion (16.7% likelihood); they ultimately joined Plymouth Argyle and Cardiff in the bottom three. Similarly, Sunderland – who eventually won promotion via the play-offs in 2024-25 – were deemed the fourth likeliest to be relegated (24.1%).
Those behind the Not the Top 20 podcast, who are arguably the most knowledgeable journalists around when it comes to the EFL, even got some of their 2024-25 projections very wrong. Luton were tipped to finish fourth (they ended 22nd) in their pre-season predictions, while Watford (finished 14th) and Millwall (finished 8th) were tipped to finish in the bottom three alongside Derby County (finished 19th).
This year, the Opta supercomputer suggests Oxford United, Watford and Wrexham are the three likeliest sides to be relegated to League One based on what it knows today. However, each one of them is given a greater chance of finishing in the top 10 than they are of being relegated. This league could scarcely be tighter.
It’s the Best (Second-Tier) League in World Football
The Championship is among the best men’s football leagues in the world, based on our data.
If we analyse the Opta Power Rating of all clubs in every league – and not just top-tier competitions – the Championship ranks sixth overall. This is, of course, partly down to the disparity in quality that certain top-tier leagues have, while England’s second tier is renowned for being extremely competitive.
While leagues like the Dutch Eredivisie, Portuguese Primeira Liga and Brazilian Série A quite obviously have some teams that are far better than those in the Championship, the English second tier doesn’t have as much of a difference between the best and worst teams.
The graphic below demonstrates this.
Last season, Sheffield United became just the third side in the history of England’s second tier to win as many as 90 points yet fail to secure automatic promotion. They are the only Championship side currently ranked inside the top 100 of the Opta Power Rankings; the Eredivisie and Primeira Liga both have four, while the Brazilian top flight has two.
But the average rating of the Championship’s teams is higher than any of these leagues, because the worst teams aren’t as low down the rankings.
Comparing the English Championship to other second-tier divisions across Europe, it’s ranked well above those in Spain (21st), Germany (28th), Italy (31st) and France (35th).
The Battle to Reach the Premier League
The Premier League is often hailed as the ‘promised land’ for English football clubs, with a huge financial windfall the reward for any team that makes it there.
Unfortunately, teams that have come up from the Championship haven’t stuck around for too long in recent seasons. All six of the promoted clubs in 2022-23 and 2023-24 were relegated from the Premier League the following season, but the fun is in the battle to make it there.
Seven different clubs spent at least 30 days inside the automatic promotion spots in the Championship last season, while half the league (12 teams) enjoyed 40+ days in the top six. Mathematically, four clubs were also still in the battle for the final two play-off spots on the final day of 2024-25.
Even though Leeds United and Burnley both collected 100 points – the first time in English league history that two sides have reached a century in the same season – Daniel Farke’s Leeds were outside the top two as late as 7 April, with six games left to play. Burnley were also outside the automatic promotion spots with seven matches to go.
Just to further emphasise how competitive the Championship was last season, it was still mathematically possible for every single team in the league to either be promoted or relegated (and both in some cases) with only four matchdays left.
Back-to-Back Promotions?
Birmingham City are a very different club to the one relegated from the Championship in 2023-24. Last season, they stormed to the League One title, breaking records along the way.
They collected more points (111) and wins (34) in 2024-25 than any team in English Football League history within a single season.
Today, not short of investment in the side and having made some great signings in the summer following promotion back to the Championship, they are looking to achieve successive promotions and reach the Premier League for the first time since 2010-11.
Only 12 teams in English football history have achieved back-to-back promotions from the third tier to the top tier, with five doing so in the Premier League era.
Ipswich Town were the latest side to do this under the guidance of Kieran McKenna, finishing second to Plymouth in League One in 2022-23 before also ending as runners-up to Leicester City in the 2023-24 Championship.
Of course, there is also the possibility of Hollywood-backed Wrexham and Charlton Athletic doing the same following their respective promotions from League One, but Birmingham’s exceptional form in 2024-25 marks them out as the likeliest to do it this time around.
Back-to-Back Promotions From Third Tier to First Tier in English Football
Charlton Athletic: 1934-35 (3rd Tier), 1935-36 (2nd Tier)Queens Park Rangers: 1966-67 (3rd Tier), 1967-68 (2nd Tier)Oxford United: 1983-84 (3rd Tier), 1984-85 (2nd Tier)Derby County: 1985-86 (3rd Tier), 1986-87 (2nd Tier)Middlesbrough: 1986-87 (3rd Tier), 1987-88 (2nd Tier)Sheffield United: 1988-89 (3rd Tier), 1989-90 (2nd Tier)Notts County: 1989-90 (3rd Tier), 1990-91 (2nd Tier)Watford: 1997-98 (3rd Tier), 1998-99 (2nd Tier)Manchester City: 1998-99 (3rd Tier), 1999-00 (2nd Tier)Norwich City: 2009-10 (3rd Tier), 2010-11 (2nd Tier)Southampton: 2010-11 (3rd Tier), 2011-12 (2nd Tier)Ipswich Town: 2022-23 (3rd Tier), 2023-24 (2nd Tier)
‘Bouncebackability’?
Getting back into the Premier League following relegation is no easy task. Since 2016-17, just nine of the 27 relegated Championship teams have managed to win their place back in the top flight at the first time of asking – a success rate of just 33%.
Burnley were the only team to do it last season, with Sheffield United just missing out in the play-off final, while Luton suffered the indignity of being relegated again, dropping into League One.
Based on their history, Leicester City should be the favourites to bounce straight back up this time around.
No team have been promoted to the Premier League (since 1992) more often than they have, and three of their five promotions in that time have come in their first campaign back in the second tier after being relegated (1995-96, 2002-03 and 2023-24).
Overall, Leicester have been promoted to the top flight 13 times, ahead of Birmingham City (12) and Manchester City (11).
The last time Southampton were relegated from the Premier League to the Championship (2022-23), Saints won promotion back to the top flight at the first time of asking (2023-24). But they needed to navigate the play-offs to regain their place, beating Leeds United in the 2024 Championship play-off final.
Potential For a Fantastic Golden Boot Race in 2025-26
Last season, Leeds United striker Joël Piroe topped the Championship scoring charts with 19 goals. That was the first time in 124 years that the second tier’s top goalscorer tallied fewer than 20 goals in a season, with Barnsley’s Andrew Swann (18 goals) the last to do so, way back in 1900-01.
But with some former Golden Boot winners back in the Championship this season, plus the recruitment of some other high-scoring players from across Europe, there could be a great battle to finish as the league’s top scorer this time around.
In Sam Szmodics’ excellent 2023-24 season at Blackburn Rovers, he scored 27 times on the way to picking up the Championship Golden Boot. It was also a goal tally that earned him a move to Ipswich Town in August 2024, and he’ll be back in the competition with the Tractor Boys this season.
He could be joined at Portman Road by Chuba Akpom based on recent transfer reports. Akpom won the Golden Boot in the Championship back in 2022-23 thanks to his 28 goals for Middlesbrough.
Adam Armstrong is another player who’s dropped back down to the Championship after Southampton were relegated from the Premier League last season. Since the start of the 2019-20 campaign, the 28-year-old has scored 71 goals in 151 Championship appearances – only Piroe (74 in 182) has scored more across those six seasons.
There has also been an influx of strikers heading over to the Championship from Scandinavia this summer, with Norwich City buying Mathias Kvistgaarden from Brøndby, Aune Heggebø arriving at West Bromwich Albion from Brann in Norway, and Watford bringing in Luca Kjerrumgaard.
Kvistgaarden arguably has the most impressive record of the trio over the last 12 months, scoring 17 goals in 29 Danish Superliga appearances and finishing behind only Patrick Mortensen (20) in the 2024-25 goal charts. As it stands, at Carrow Road, he’ll team up with Josh Sargent, who has scored 44 goals in 98 Championship appearances since 2022-23.
Kjerrumgaard recorded 22 goals in 28 league games for Odense in the Danish second tier last season to pick up the top scorer award. That alerted Udinese to the 6-foot-6 striker this summer, and naturally, they sent him on loan to partner club Watford for 2025-26.
Heggebø had been in great form in the Norwegian Eliteserien before moving to West Brom this summer. The 24-year-old scored seven goals in his first 11 league appearances for Brann between 29 March and 29 May, adding to five goals in his final seven appearances of the 2024 Eliteserien season for the club.
Two players who performed well in League One last season could also be among the leading scorers in the Championship this season.
Charlie Kelman won the League One Golden Boot award in 2024-25 following 23 goals while on loan at Leyton Orient from QPR. He’s since signed permanently for promoted Charlton Athletic, while Birmingham City’s Jay Stansfield scored 19 goals to help power them to the title last season.
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