Current ‘modestly restrictive’ monetary policy is appropriate.
Tariff impact modest so far but will increase over time.
Will need to watch data to understand tariff impact.
Overall inflation likely at 2.5% in June, core at 2.75%.
Job growth and labor supply are both slowing.
U.S. economy to grow around 1% this year.
Inflation to stand at between 3%-3.5% this year.
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Williams said current monetary policy remains “modestly restrictive” and appropriate, signalling little urgency to cut rates.
While he sees the economy in a “good place” for now, Williams flagged slowing job growth and labor supply, alongside heightened uncertainty and a projected rise in unemployment to 4.5% by year-end. Markets will likely interpret this as reinforcing the Fed’s data-dependent posture, but with a tilt toward caution amid rising stagflation risks — sticky inflation coupled with slowing growth.
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