Yesterday's FOMC minutes highlighted the critical dynamic on interest rates.
"If labor market conditions or economic activity were to weaken materially, or if inflation were to continue to come down and inflation expectations remained well anchored, then it would be appropriate to establish a less restrictive stance of monetary policy than would otherwise be the case," the Minutes say.
The claims data would have to start rising for any 'material' worsening of the jobs picture and likely well beyond 250K to get the Fed's attention -- perhaps 300K.
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