ROCHESTER, N.Y. — Be prepared for a hot, sunny weekend. Western New York started off very mild on Saturday morning with temperatures in the low 60s and even the upper 50s for some areas across the region.
However, a frontal boundary is moving in from the west, very slowly. This is not a very fast or strong warm front, but it will create a noticeable difference in both our surface and dew point temperatures.
By noon on Saturday, temperatures will reach the mid-80s across the region with highs hitting 90 degrees by the early afternoon. Though warm fronts generally provide less forcing than cold fronts (in other words, less storms), dewpoints in the mid-60s create an environment that could be favorable for a brief shower and rumble of thunder.
Plenty of heating and humidity allows for even weak frontal forcing to be enough for some spotty showers. That being said, the Finger Lakes may see a quick shower pop up around dinner time and a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. These showers will be quick and, at most, cause a brief downpour.
Most of us through the Rochester area can expect mostly dry, albeit humid, weather for the entirety of Saturday. Strong southwesterly flow brings us more heat on Sunday with highs reaching near 92 degrees. A southwesterly low-level jet streak (a narrow strip of strong winds about 1 kilometer above the surface) will enhance warm temperatures and maintain relatively humid conditions. Winds will stay moderate between 10 and 15 mph.
However, with that jet above us, daytime heating could bring some gustier winds near 30 mph down to the surface. The cold front that has been lingering to our north will start to drop down over Ontario but will remain there for Sunday keeping the Rochester area mostly dry. Again, similar to Saturday, with relatively humid temperatures, it is still possible to see a passing shower in the evening on Sunday.
The cold front will finally drop through our region on Monday bringing some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Models are giving a wide spread in the high temperature for Monday, as the timing of the frontal passage still has yet to be fine-tuned.
However, it is safe to say temperatures will reach at least the low to mid 80s with showers and storms likely starting up in the mid-afternoon. Temperatures the rest of the week will become much more tolerable in the low 80s and high 70s.
First Alert Weather: Hot and sunny for Fourth of July weekend WHEC.com.
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