Chris MacFarland had an idea for why the NHL’s free agent frenzy felt more sluggish than spectacular.
The salary cap is going up next season — way up. The increase, from $88 million to $95.5 million, is the largest (by dollars, not percentage) in one year since the cap was installed in 2005. And for the first time in the cap era, the NHL provided estimated projections for three seasons: The ceiling is expected to shoot up to $104 million in 2026-27 and $113.5 million in 2027-28.
Everyone has more money to spend, so cue the player movement mayhem, right?
Not so fast.
“I think we’re entering into a different time period than maybe the last years when the cap was flat,” the Colorado Avalanche general manager said. “We’re in this scenario where there is going to be more money in the system. Is that going to mean less players hit free agency?
“These dramatic increases are certainly helpful, especially for teams that are entering that cycle and trying to win.”
That was certainly the case this offseason. Six pending UFAs signed contracts worth $5 million per season or more in June with their current teams (though Mitch Marner was moved in a sign-and-trade). Only six UFAs went to the market and signed deals worth that much per season in the first three days of July, and one (Brock Boeser) stayed put. Boeser’s team, the Vancouver Canucks, also got a start on diluting next year’s UFA pool by signing Thatcher Demko and Conor Garland to big-money extensions.
So, where does that leave the top of the NHL? Looking pretty similar to how it did at the end of this past season.
There could be more movement to come, but a lot of it will be minor alterations around the edges. Let’s rank some Stanley Cup contenders and pretenders.
1. Dallas Stars: Surprise, it’s not the Florida Panthers … like possibly every other list this offseason. The Panthers (and Edmonton Oilers) have played so many games the past few years. No team has reached the Stanley Cup a fourth year in a row since 1983. It’s crazy hard to do, and the schedule is going to be compressed by the Olympic break.
The Stars’ most important loss could be coach Peter DeBoer, but his former team has won the Stanley Cup shortly after his departure before. A full year of Mikko Rantanen, plus another year for Thomas Harley and Wyatt Johnston, and this can be the best team in the league.
2. Florida Panthers: They got the band back together and are still loaded, and the rest of the East is … trying to catch up. We’re still predicting the Panthers will run out of gas at some point, but it might not be until the end.
3. Vegas Golden Knights: That forward group is downright frightening after adding Marner. There is one obvious hole — no Alex Pietrangelo — so the defense corps looks one impact guy short. It’s Vegas. The Knights will add one, with Calgary’s Rasmus Andersson already linked to them.
4. Edmonton Oilers: The Oilers lost quite a bit and didn’t find a new goaltender. It’s still a deep team. Andrew Mangiapane will probably be a nice addition playing next to one of the two titans in the middle. They have to go get a goalie at some point … right?
5. Carolina Hurricanes: Speaking of consistently successful teams that keep running back the same shaky goaltending tandem, the Hurricanes did add two significant pieces: Nikolai Ehlers and K’Andre Miller. They still need a real No. 2 center. It’s still the same two goalies who have produced a sub-.900 save percentage in back-to-back playoffs. Ehlers is the new Rantanen/Martin Necas replacement. Is he going to like playing there any better than the other two did?
6. Colorado Avalanche: No other team on this list still needs to add multiple players. Colorado might be the only contender that could still trade a significant player between now and opening night. But, the top two-thirds or even three-fourths of this roster right now is quite good. If, and it’s a big if considering age and recent issues, the Avs get better injury luck this year, just having the upgraded goalie tandem alone could be worth a few places in the standings. The Avs could be higher on the preseason version of this list in two months.
7. Winnipeg Jets: Losing Ehlers could hurt. There could be some shooting luck regression. But Connor Hellebuyck is still the best regular-season goalie in the world. Maybe Jonathan Toews plus Gustav Nyquist plus a couple of other forward depth additions will replace Ehlers in the aggregate.
8. Tampa Bay Lightning: Their top 6-8 guys are still as good as anyone. The defense corps behind Victor Hedman could use help. This is still a 100-plus point team as long as Andrei Vasilevskiy avoids a significant injury.
9. New Jersey Devils: This is a deep, dangerous roster if the Devils can keep everyone healthy. Or at least not have a comical injury list when the playoffs begin. There’s a case to put the Devils at least two spots higher.
10. Minnesota Wild: The Wild is finally past the worst part of the Zach Parise-Ryan Suter buyout anchors, and yet … this roster could be better. It’s a great example of how not to spend too much money on the depth guys, which then leaves you short one difference-maker. That said, the kids, led by DU product Zeev Buium, could be the answer.
11. St. Louis Blues: Yes, this is a Central Division beat writer putting *five* Central teams in the top 11. Look at the Blues roster, though. It’s pretty deep after adding Pius Suter as the No. 3 center, not to mention Jimmy Snuggerud could be a decent bet as a Calder Trophy candidate.
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13. Los Angeles Kings: This might be a bit of an overreaction to what pretty much everyone has panned as a confounding offseason. Darcy Kuemper is certainly in the “can he do that again” bucket of players. Maybe the new-look defense won’t be a step back.
14. Montreal Canadiens: GM Kent Hughes might be pretty good at this. The Habs could use another center, but they’ve got good, young NHL players and maybe NHL-ready prospects for days. This could be the breakout team of the season.
15. Toronto Maple Leafs: This does feel too low. But, they’re going to miss Marner more than the very online portion of their fanbase thinks. It’s still a top-heavy forward group, unless Matias Maccelli has a big bounce-back year. A full year of Brandon Carlo should help, but it’s also still just a solid defense corps that desperately needs another offensive creator behind Morgan Rielly.
16. Vancouver Canucks: The Canucks easily led the league in internal strife and Petterssons last year. A healthy Thatcher Demko and an offseason to reset and find some harmony again could go a long way. Letting Suter go and adding Evander Kane is a weird pair of decisions, though.
Just missed: Ottawa, Utah, Columbus, N.Y. Rangers, Calgary.
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