More than 120 Labour MPs have backed an amendment that could derail Government plans to cut Personal Independence Payments (PIP) and alter elements of universal credit.
Former Work and Pensions Secretary Lord Blunkett has warned that if the bill fails, Starmer may be forced into a confidence vote. “If they lost it, they’d have to go for a vote of confidence,” he told LBC.
If the welfare bill fails, Starmer could choose to treat the vote as a test of confidence in his leadership.
A similar scenario led to the downfall of Liz Truss’s short-lived time as Prime Minister. She told MPs that a vote on fracking amounted to a confidence vote in the government in an effort to get them in line, but when it failed, her premiership unravelled within 24 hours.
Starmer has so far rejected this option, telling Sky News: “It’s not a confidence vote.”
Opposition tables a no-confidence motion
It is very difficult to conceive Labour MPs joining the Conservatives to vote against their leader in a motion tabled by the Opposition.
The last time this happened was in 1979, when James Callaghan’s Labour Government fell. Although Labour holds a significant majority today, a coordinated rebellion could bring the Government down, especially if a handful of Labour MPs abstain or vote against.
In the unlikely event Starmer chose to resign, either of his own volition or if forced by a confidence motion, the Prime Minister would first travel to Buckingham Palace to tender his resignation in person.
Because Labour holds a large majority, the party would have the opportunity to form a government under a new leader without holding an election.
Under Labour rules, a full leadership election must be held if more than one candidate is nominated. The process involves weeks of nominations, shortlisting, and balloting by members and affiliates — unless the National Executive Committee agrees to abbreviate the timetable.
What happens if the welfare bill isn’t defeated?
Of course, Starmer could make enough concessions to reduce the size of the rebellion so that the bill passes successfully by watering down any proposed changes to the welfare system to soften their impact.
If Starmer wins the welfare vote but only narrowly — particularly with support from Conservative MPs — his leadership could still be badly damaged.
In what would be an extremely unlikely outcome of such a scenario, Labour backbenchers could trigger a Parliamentary Labour Party motion of no confidence. While symbolic rather than binding, this would mirror the 2016 vote against Jeremy Corbyn, which Corbyn survived, but which severely weakened his leadership.
But, if discontent continues to mount, a challenger could seek a formal leadership contest. Labour rules allow any MP who gains the support of 20 per cent of Labour MPs and affiliated bodies to stand, prompting a vote among party members.
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