Donald Trump has returned to Washington, saying that 10 million people “should evacuate Tehran”, presumably because the Iranian capital faces the same death and destruction as Gaza.
Possibly, the Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei will emulate Ruhollah Khomeini when he “drained the bitter cup” in 1988 and ended the Iran-Iraq war as the US openly sided with Iraq. On the other hand, Khamenei may feel that admitting defeat by Israel would be so humiliating that it would prove a mortal blow to the prestige – and even existence – of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Iran was the one nation-state in the region with military power still opposing Israel, while 50 years ago hostile states would have included Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Libya and several others which have since been ravaged by civil war or are politically neutered.
The Axis is often referred to in the West as “Iranian proxies”, but, with the exception of Sunni Muslim Hamas in Gaza, all the other members of the grouping are indigenous Shia militias, which, though they received varying degrees of aid from Iran, have strong support in their own Shia communities. Weakened these movements certainly are, but they are not going to disappear from the political and military map.
Among the biggest losers over the last two years of war are Russia. Successful Russian military intervention in Syria in 2015 kept Assad in power, marking Moscow’s return as a major player in the region for the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. But Assad fled Damascus last December after a short campaign in which Moscow did little to save him. Russian President Vladimir Putin is now supposedly mediating between Israel and Iran, but only because Russia is out of the game.
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Trump’s default position has always been, long before he became US President, to claim success whatever happens though his efforts to end or prevent wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Iran have uniformly failed or got nowhere.
In Iran, Netanyahu has declared that a secondary Israeli aim is to provoke a popular uprising to overthrow the Iranian Government, but this is unlikely to happen. Like Saddam Hussein in Iraq in 1990 after defeat in the Gulf War, the Iranian authorities retain a monopoly of organised armed forces in the country. After 20 months of pounding Gaza into ruins, Israel has not yet displaced Hamas as rulers of the tiny enclave, though 57,000 Palestinians are dead.
Trump’s crazed antics have so far only exacerbated the Gaza and Iran wars, guaranteeing a legacy of hatred that will destabilise the region for decades to come.
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