Following dozens of missile attacks by Israel on military commanders and nuclear scientists in Iran, global tensions have risen as allies of both nations look on as a decades-long proxy conflict boils over.
Russia has sought to tone down the rhetoric, with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov telling his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araqchi on Saturday that Moscow condemns Israel’s use of force against Iran and is ready to help de-escalate the situation.
John Foreman, the former UK defence attache to Moscow and Kyiv told The i Paper that “we’re not on the edge of WW3.”
Iran’s nuclear facilities (Photo: Anadolu)“I don’t think Russia wants to get between Israel and Iran. Russia has seen its strategic position in the Middle East weaken significantly since the October 7 Hamas attack.
Russia has never supplied Iran with its most modern military equipment, Foreman said. “I’m not convinced they would now given the state of the war in Ukraine,” he added.
Professor Justin Bronk of RUSI, the UK’s leading defence think tank, said that Russia would be less eager to support the Tehran leadership than Iran has been to support Putin’s invasion.
Is Putin reliant on Iran for drones?
A key partnership between Russia and Iran in recent years has been around drones, with Russia initially relying upon Iranian drones early on in the Ukraine war.
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“I don’t think [the escalation in Iran] materially affects Russia continuing its war against Ukraine,” Foreman said.
“It is also improving their range, accuracy, and warheads. This was a deliberate strategy from 2023 when Russia was more dependent on Iran.
Could Iran-Israel attacks pause conflict in Ukraine?
Bronk agreed that the strikes on Iran would only provide partial respite, if any, to the Ukrainian frontlines, because Russia can now produce its own drones at scale.
“Even if its factories are not hit by Israeli strikes, Iran will likely wish to use its production output where possible to harass Israel and tie up IAF capacity intercepting them,” Bronk said.
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