One year out from the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the United States, Mexico and Canada continue their preparations at the CONCACAF Gold Cup. But who will come out on top? We consult the Opta supercomputer for its CONCACAF Gold Cup predictions.
FIFA’s revamped, 32-team Club World Cup may be taking centre-stage this offseason, but there is also an international trophy up for grabs in the States.
The CONCACAF Gold Cup – the premier international competition for teams in North and Central America (as well as Saudi Arabia, the 2025 guests) runs from 14 June to 6 July, with 13 venues across the United States – plus Vancouver – hosting games.
Many of the continent’s biggest stars may be absent due to injury or participation at the Club World Cup, but that could only add to the intrigue.
For the USA, Mexico and Canada, the competition represents an important staging post on the path to a home World Cup in 12 months’ time.
Mexico will look to defend the crown they won in Los Angeles two years ago and, in the process, become the first 10-time winners of CONCACAF’s premier tournament.
Mauricio Pochettino’s honeymoon period as USA head coach ended with March’s humiliating defeat to Panama in the CONCACAF Nations League, and the former Tottenham and Chelsea coach needs to see progress at this tournament.
Jesse Marsch, meanwhile, has had a positive impact since taking charge of Canada and is looking to build on an encouraging fourth-place finish at the 2024 Copa América.
No nation other than those three has ever won the Gold Cup, despite the likes of Brazil and Colombia guesting at previous editions.
Will that change in Houston next month? We consulted the trusty Opta supercomputer to get its predictions for how the tournament will go.
Mexico
This will be the 19th edition of the Gold Cup since it was rebranded from the CONCACAF Championship in 1991.
Mexico have won half of the previous 18, finishing as runners-up twice and never failing to make the last eight.
It is no surprise, then, to see Javier Aguirre’s team installed as the favourites by Opta’s predictive model, lifting the trophy in 30.1% of tournament simulations. They are also the most likely to reach the quarter-finals (94.6%), the semi-finals (63.0%) and the final (46.5%).
Mexico underlined their status as top dogs on the continent in March, beating Canada 2-0 and Panama 2-1 to win the 2024-25 Nations League title.
And whereas many of their rivals are severely depleted, El Tri have been able to name an experienced squad for this tournament, with Fulham’s Raúl Jiménez and Milan‘s Santiago Giménez likely to spearhead Aguirre’s 4-4-2 system.
Jiménez has experienced a resurgence with Fulham in the last two seasons, improving on his 2023-24 haul of seven Premier League goals by netting 12 times in 2024-25. He only scored 10 in total across his final three seasons with Wolves (2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-33), having suffered a skull fracture in 2020.
The 34-year-old surpassed Javier Hernández to become the highest-scoring Mexican in Premier League history last term, though he is still 13 adrift of ‘Chicharito’ in his country’s scoring charts.
At the other end of the pitch, Mexico have recalled iconic goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa, who is Gold Cup royalty. The 39-year-old boasts more appearances in the competition than any other player (25) and has also lifted the trophy five times – more often than anyone else.
Hirving Lozano was also set to return to the fold after a strong start to life in MLS with San Diego FC, for whom he has five goals and five assists. However, a hamstring injury caused the former PSV and Napoli attacker to withdraw from the squad.
Head coach Aguirre is into his third spell in charge of Mexico, having previously led them to Gold Cup glory in 2009. His quest for a repeat triumph begins against the Dominican Republic on 14 June, with Suriname and Costa Rica their other Group A foes.
Mexico are expected to make it through the group (94.6%), with Costa Rica the favourites to qualify along with them, doing so in 65.6% of the simulations.
United States
When Pochettino was confirmed as Gregg Berhalter’s successor last September, his appointment was hailed as a major coup for U.S. Soccer.
The USA won five of their first six games under the Argentine, but their momentum came crashing to a halt when defeats to Panama and Mexico saw them finish fourth in the Nations League.
An improvement is expected here, though Pochettino will be working with a very inexperienced squad. Christian Pulisic has chosen to skip the competition, while Monaco‘s Folarin Balogun has joined Fulham left-back Antonee Robinson on the injury list.
Weston McKennie, Giovanni Reyna, Tim Weah and Yunus Musah are also out. Veteran defender Tim Ream is the only outfielder in the squad with more than 50 caps (69), with none of their forwards possessing more than 16.
Pochettino appeared frustrated when discussing the issue in a recent interview with Unfiltered Soccer, saying: “People need to prioritise the national team. Lionel Messi, Neymar, [Kylian] Mbappé, we were working with these guys, even Harry Kane… these guys are desperate to go to the national team.”
Despite their many absentees, the USA are second favourites to lift the trophy, and did so in 27.1% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations.
They are only marginally second-favourite to Mexico to reach each of the knockout stages, with their hopes of making the quarters at 93.1%, the semis at 62.1% and the final at 44.3%.
That long list of absentees does mean plenty of fringe players have a chance to force their way into Pochettino’s World Cup plans.
Brian White is a late bloomer, having only scored his first goal for the USA at the age of 28 years and 354 days in January. However, only Tai Baribo (13 goals) and Sam Surridge (11) have outscored the Vancouver Whitecaps frontman in MLS this year, with White’s 10 goals coming from 7.48 expected goals (xG).
The only other American in double figures for goals and assists combined in MLS this season is Diego Luna, and the Real Salt Lake star could start behind White as a number 10.
The USA will face Trinidad and Tobago, guest participants Saudi Arabia and Haiti in Group D. Saudi Arabia are expected to advance with the hosts, doing so in 78.5% of scenarios. The other two have much slimmer chances, with Haiti’s 14.8% chance of reaching the quarter-finals sitting marginally higher than Trinidad and Tobago’s 13.6%.
Canada
Canada’s only Gold Cup success came way back in 2000, and they have only gone as far as the final four on three other occasions, in 2002, 2007 and 2021.
But they will be optimistic regarding their hopes in 2025, having finished fourth at last year’s Copa América after losing 2-0 to eventual champions Argentina in the semi-finals.
Canada proved they have what it takes to compete at the top level at that tournament, registering 25 touches in the Argentina penalty area to just 13 by the world champions.
They were also moments away from overcoming Uruguay in the third-place play-off, but Luis Suárez’s 92nd-minute leveller forced a penalty shootout that the Celeste won 4-3.
Canada then finished third in the Nations League, losing 2-0 to Mexico in the semis but beating the USA for bronze, though Marsch has ambitiously declared that nothing less than lifting the Gold Cup will constitute success for his team.
They are given a 12.6% chance of ruling North and Central America, and while they are strong candidates to make the last eight (82.8%) and semi-final (52.1%), while they made the final in just over a quarter of the 10,000 pre-tournament simulations (25.4%).
Just as the USA will be missing poster boy Pulisic, Canada will be without Bayern Munich‘s Alphonso Davies after he ruptured his cruciate ligament in March.
Marsch believes Jonathan David wants to play at the tournament, though some of the clubs looking to sign the free agent striker are involved in the Club World Cup.
David – who averages more than a goal every other game for Canada (34 in 63 appearances) – scored 87 goals in 178 Ligue 1 appearances for Lille. Since his debut in August 2020, only Kylian Mbappé has more goals in the French top flight (111).
Canada, who will play their opening game against Honduras on home soil in Vancouver, have landed a kind group-stage draw, with El Salvador and Curaçao their other opponents.
Honduras are the next most likely to progress to the quarter-finals, with their chances sitting at 53.1%, with El Salvador (39.2%) harbouring better chances than Curaçao (25.0%).
Saudi Arabia
Brazil (in 1996 and 2003) and Colombia (2000) have previously made the Gold Cup final as guest participants, while Peru (2000), South Korea (2002), and Qatar (2021) have gone as far as the last four.
Saudi Arabia are the latest invitees to try their luck, joining the Dominican Republic as one of two debutants at the 2025 tournament.
Saudi Arabia, who only reached the last 16 at last year’s Asia Cup, are given a 9.3% chance of lifting the trophy, but are the fourth most likely to push their way to the showpiece, with their hopes of reaching the last four sitting at 36.9%.
They will be without Salem Al-Dawsari – the hero of Saudi Arabia’s 2022 World Cup upset of Argentina – due to Al-Hilal’s Club World Cup participation, meaning he will have to wait to bring up a century of caps.
He ended the Saudi Pro League season with 30 goal involvements for Al-Hilal (15 goals, 15 assists), outdoing Al-Nassr’s Cristiano Ronaldo by two and matching Karim Benzema’s haul for Al-Ittihad, and is sure to be a big miss.
Panama
Outside CONCACAF’s established big three, Panama are another of the teams most likely to enjoy a run deep into the competition.
The Opta supercomputer predicts they are the fifth-most likely side to lift the trophy, with their hopes sitting at 5.3%, while they reach the final in 13.7% of the simulations. They are more likely to reach the semi-finals than Saudi Arabia though, at 37.1%.
Thomas Christiansen’s men will certainly carry a threat. They have won their last three competitive matches against the USA, at the 2023 Gold Cup (semi-finals), the 2024 Copa América (group stage) and in the Nations League in March (semi-finals). Prior to that run, they had only ever beaten the USA three times in 21 competitive meetings.
Panama were also close to taking Mexico to extra-time in the Nations League final, conceding a stoppage-time penalty to Jiménez, having also lost 1-0 to El Tri in the 2023 Gold Cup final.
An experienced Panama squad will be led by 147-cap veteran Aníbal Godoy. He has impressed for San Diego this year, ranking fourth among all MLS midfielders for successful passes, with 938.
Other Participants
Only five other teams have a chance above 1% of getting their hands on the Gold Cup, with Jamaica only narrowly behind Panama at 4.8%.
Costa Rica (4.2%), Honduras (2.5%) and El Salvador (1.2%) are also given an outside chance of victory.
Guatemala (1.0%) and Suriname (0.5%) and Curaçao (0.4%) are only given a slim hope of success in this tournament.
Guadeloupe (0.3%) round out the best of the rest, with Trinidad, Haiti and the Dominican Republic’s chances of claiming a huge scalp sitting between 0.1% and 0.2%.
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Who Will Win the CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025? Opta Supercomputer Predictions Opta Analyst.
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