We look ahead to the only Premier League game on Boxing Day this year with our Manchester United vs Newcastle prediction and preview.
Manchester United vs Newcastle: The Key Stats
Manchester United have a 39.2% win probability for the sole Boxing Day fixture in the Premier League, with Newcastle United’s chances ranked at 34.2% by Opta’s supercomputer. However, the Red Devils will almost certainly be without Bruno Fernandes. They have lost six of their seven league games in which the playmaker has not featured since the start of the 2022-23 season. Man Utd have won all three of their Premier League Boxing Day games against Newcastle.To the frustration of many a traditionalist, there is only one Premier League fixture on Boxing Day this year.
While there’s a feast of Championship and lower league football to tuck into on Friday, fans have to wait until late on for the sole top-flight clash, as Manchester United welcome Newcastle United to Old Trafford.
This is the first Boxing Day in Premier League history to see as few as one game being played. It’s between the team with the most Boxing Day wins in the competition (Man Utd, 22) and the team with the joint-most defeats (Newcastle, 16).
United come into it on the back of a 2-1 loss to a Morgan Rogers-inspired Aston Villa on Sunday, a defeat in which the Red Devils also saw Bruno Fernandes go off with what seemed to be a hamstring injury.
Newcastle, meanwhile, head into Christmas in the bottom half. They took a 2-0 lead against Chelsea last time out, thanks to Nick Woltemade‘s first-half double, only to throw that advantage away in a match that finished 2-2.
The congested nature of the Premier League table means that a win for Newcastle would not only see them rise into the top half, but even potentially leapfrog United into seventh place.
The Magpies have won just one of their last four league games, but they do have another EFL Cup semi-final to look forward to and are well placed in the UEFA Champions League. This season may have been a frustrating one so far, but there are still plenty of reasons to be positive.
United, meanwhile, were unlucky to fall short against Villa. Rogers’ two finishes were of world-class quality. And while Leny Yoro could arguably have done better to cut the space down for both goals, Ruben Amorim’s side can at least take solace in the fact they were simply undone by a player who is at the very top of his game right now.
The loss to Villa was only United’s second defeat in the space of 11 games since the end of September. And while they are not ready for a title challenge, they can definitely consider themselves firmly in the mix for European qualification. Whether they are Champions League contenders is something that the festive fixture list may well help settle.
United face lowly Wolves, a resurgent Leeds and then relegation-battling Burnley in their three outings after taking on Newcastle, so a positive result here could really set Amorim’s team up well ahead of what is a relatively kind run, at least on paper.
Opta’s supercomputer ranks United’s chances of a top-four finish at 5.6%, though they do have an 8.4% chance of placing fifth, which could be enough to see them qualify for the Champions League.
However, key to their hopes of getting back to winning ways and maintaining that form over the festive run could be the fitness of Fernandes.
Fernandes pulled up late in the first half at Villa Park, and though he played on initially, the Portugal international was not risked for the second period. He has been involved in more open-play shot-ending sequences than any other player in the Premier League this season.
United have failed to win any of their seven Premier League games since the 2022-23 campaign without Fernandes in the starting lineup, losing six of those (D1). The Red Devils have netted just four goals in those matches.
Other players, then, will have to step up in his absence.
United are not helped by their absences due to the Africa Cup of Nations, with Bryan Mbeumo and Amad Diallo away at that tournament.
However, they have a player in form in Matheus Cunha. The Brazilian scored against Villa and should probably have netted a second, as he headed wide from a Patrick Dorgu cross late on.
Cunha has now scored in back-to-back Premier League games after only netting once in his first 12 for United. The forward has averaged 4.1 shots per 90 in the Premier League this season – the most of any player to have played at least 400 minutes. Using the same filter, Cunha ranks third for shots on target per 90 (1.6).
United have also been linked with a January move for Bournemouth’s Antoine Semenyo, who would certainly add additional pace and firepower to their attack.
But before United can bring in any reinforcements, they must get through the Christmas period.
Sunday’s loss at Villa Park means United have lost 14 Premier League games for the third consecutive calendar year, but the Red Devils have not suffered more league defeats in a year since 1989 under Alex Ferguson (18).
United have lost their last three Premier League matches played between Christmas and New Year, as many as they lost in their previous 43 games on those dates (W32 D8 L3).
Newcastle, meanwhile, have won their last two away league matches played between Christmas and New Year, beating Leicester on Boxing Day 2022 and Man Utd on 30 December last year.
They had won just two of their previous 34 away league games played between Boxing Day and New Year’s Eve (D6 L26).
Eddie Howe has won seven of his 13 Boxing Day league games as a manager (D3 L3) – he won all five outside of the top-flight as Bournemouth and Burnley manager between 2009 and 2014, though only has a 25% win ratio on this day in the Premier League (P8 W2 D3 L3).
Newcastle may be throwing away leads in regular fashion right now (see below graphic), but they do have attackers in form.
Anthony Gordon has registered a goal involvement in four of his last six appearances (four goals, two assists), while striker Woltemade got himself back in business with that double against Chelsea, as he aimed to put his quite incredible own goal against Sunderland behind him.
Woltemade has scored seven Premier League goals this season – the only German players to net more often in their debut campaign in the competition are Jürgen Klinsmann in 1994-95 (20), Lukas Podolski in 2012-13 (11) and André Schürrle in 2013-14 (eight).
Manchester United vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
United have won all three of their Premier League Boxing Day games against Newcastle, with all three coming under different managers – 4-3 in 2012 (Ferguson), 3-1 in 2014 (van Gaal) and 4-1 in 2019 (Solskjaer).
Newcastle, however, did the league double over Manchester United last season, including a 2-0 win in this exact fixture.
Yet the Magpies have not won consecutive visits to Old Trafford since March 1935, while they last won three in a row against the Red Devils in January 1922.
United have lost four of their last five Premier League games against Newcastle (W1), as many as they had in their previous 38 against the Magpies (W25 D9).
Manchester United vs Newcastle Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is expecting a tight contest.
Manchester United came out on top in 39.2% of the model’s data-led sims, while Newcastle were victorious in 34.2%.
There is a hefty 26.6% chance of a draw.
Manchester United vs Newcastle United Predicted Lineups
Manchester United: Senne Lammens, Leny Yoro, Ayden Heaven, Luke Shaw, Diogo Dalot, Manuel Ugarte, Casemiro, Patrick Dorgu, Mason Mount, Matheus Cunha, Benjamin Sesko.
Manager: Ruben Amorim
Newcastle United: Aaron Ramsdale, Lewis Miley, Malick Thiaw, Fabian Schär, Lewis Hall, Bruno Guimarães, Sandro Tonali, Jacob Ramsey, Jacob Murphy, Anthony Gordon, Nick Woltemade.
Manager: Eddie Howe
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend on Merseyside, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Manchester United vs Newcastle Prediction: Heavyweights Meet in Premier League’s Only Boxing Day Clash Opta Analyst.
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