The Pacers pulled off another unbelievable comeback win in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Here’s how they can build on the momentum and shock the Thunder again.
Normally, the focus in a Game 2 lookahead is on how the team that lost the series opener can look to improve and change the outcome in their favor.
However, anyone who watched Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals can tell you the Oklahoma City Thunder didn’t lose it as much as the Indiana Pacers won it down the stretch.
The Thunder did not trail for 47 minutes, 59 seconds of action and, for most of the night, looked like the vastly superior team. But in the end, Tyrese Haliburton (arguably the greatest clutch player of this century), hit yet another go-ahead bucket to put the Pacers in front when it mattered most.
So this time around, we’ll focus on how Indiana can build off another of his winning shots and pull off yet another improbable series upset. Game 2 is Sunday night.
The Ghost of Robert Horry
In the regular season, the Pacers were good, but not great with 3-point shooting, ranking ninth in 3-point percentage (36.8%). This postseason, though, they’ve been the best among the 16 qualifiers at 40.1%.
A big reason for this is their role players (everyone outside of Haliburton and Pascal Siakam) have been blessed by Robert Horry himself. After shooting just 36.0% in the regular season, the role players have hit 41.9% of their 3s.
In Game 1, they were even sharper, shooting 15 of 30 from downtown.
To be fair, there’s some shooting variance involved here, and with larger data, those numbers are sure to regress to the mean. But the postseason is one giant small sample size when you really think about it.
So all the Pacers really need is for this hot shooting to continue for just one last series. If they can do that, they will continue to give themselves a chance of getting to four wins before the Thunder.
Keep It Clean
In the first half of Game 1, the Pacers committed 19 turnovers. It was the most in any half of a postseason game since the New Orleans Pelicans had 18 in a 121-63 loss in the biggest blowout in playoff history against the Denver Nuggets on April 27, 2009.
The Pacers cleaned up their act in the second half, though, only tallying five giveaways. To do this, they had to go against their identity as a team.
People love watching the Pacers because they’re all about pushing the pace and moving the ball around. In the regular season, they were eighth in assisted field goal percentage (67.1%). But during the NBA playoffs, they’re first at 65.8%.
In the first half, they had assists on 10 of their 15 field goals (66.7%). But in the second half, they started passing the ball less and leaning more on self-generated scoring.
As a general rule, moving the ball is a more efficient way to run an offense. However, in specific situations – say, when a team is facing a ferocious defense like coach Mark Daigneault’s Thunder (No. 1 in defensive TRACR) – it can be better to limit the number of passes to minimize opportunities for the defense to get steals.
The Pacers decided to be more selfish in the second half (only 58.3% of their field goals were assisted), and it paid dividends. This approach may be worth continuing moving forward.
Pacers in the first half: 19 turnovers, lost by 12Pacers in the second half: 6 turnovers, won by 13
— Zach Kram (@zachkram) June 6, 2025Time to Go Full-On Thibodeau in the NBA Finals
As a quick refresher, former New York Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau is notorious for playing a shallow bench and leaning heavily on his starters. Rick Carlisle, whose Pacers beat the Knicks in the Eastern Conference finals, regularly goes deep into his bench – often playing nine or 10 players.
This postseason, 11 different Pacers are averaging at least nine minutes per game (nine are over 13 and have played in at least 15 of the 17 games).
Having so many bodies to turn to allows the Pacers to play their patented up-tempo pace – it’s served them very well up to this point. But this is the NBA Finals and the Thunder are the Pacers’ best opponent, so they can’t afford to go even a few minutes without their heaviest hitters.
In Game 1, Ben Sheppard (minus-12), T.J. McConnell (-13), Bennedict Mathurin (-8), and Thomas Bryant (-9) all finished with a -8 plus/minus or lower. Meanwhile, all of the starters except Siakam (who is usually the only starter on the floor with the reserves) finished at plus-8 or higher.
We aren’t saying none of these bench guys should play. But Carlisle definitely needs to tighten up his rotation to ensure that at least two or three starters are on the floor at all times.
This became evident when the Pacers started out the fourth quarter with a lineup of McConnell/Sheppard/Mathurin/Siakam/Bryant and was outscored 9-3 in just over two minutes. This stretch almost cost the Pacers the game, but Carlisle switched back to the starters before it was too late.
He can’t afford to let this happen again, however.
Even now down 1-0, OKC is still the strong favorite to win both Game 2 and the series. Our NBA projection model gives the Thunder an 81.9% probability of winning Game 2 and a 77.2% chance (as of Friday) of winning the NBA Finals, but the comeback Pacers proved they can slay Goliath at least once.
Now they have a blueprint for doing it three more times.
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NBA Finals Predictions: How the Pacers Can Keep the Momentum Going Against the Thunder in Game 2 Opta Analyst.
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