Fed's Musalem sees growth this year materially below 2% trend ...Middle East

Outlook is not for recession but slipping confidence, higher prices, below to household wealth point to slowing growthDo not see market dysfunction in recent volatilityFinancial conditions have tightenedTension between Fed's dual mandate begin to materializeInflation expectations well anchored, necessary to keep them that wayRisky to assume the Fed can look through higher prices from tariffs, there is a chance some effects could persistWill take a balanced approach to mon pol as long as inflation expectations remain well anchoredBusiness contacts are not turning to layoffs, but are taking a wait-and-see approach to hiring and capex

There is going to have to be a big pivot in Fed comments if we are going to get the 76 bps in easing priced in through September.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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