Goldman Sachs says 35% chance of recession (from 20%) in 12 months ...Middle East

The upward revision is largely driven by the expectation that Trump will announce a sweeping “reciprocal tariff” regime averaging 15% across all U.S. trading partners on April 2. While exemptions for specific products and countries are likely, Goldman estimates the effective impact on average tariffs would still amount to a 9-point increase.

With real income growth already decelerating—projected to average just 1.4% in 2025—Goldman cautions that the economy may be entering a more fragile phase, where sentiment and policy risks exert greater drag than in recent years.

GS still see Fed rate cuts this year, citing a scare on growth

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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