Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US consumer confidence sinks, drags down risk assets ...Middle East

US February consumer confidence 98.3 vs 102.5 expectedRichmond Fed composite index for February higher at 6 versus -4 last monthUkraine agrees US minerals deal - reportUkraine will have to "cede control of some land for peace" - reportZelensky plans to travel to Washington on Friday - reportFed's Barkin: Uncertainty argues for caution in last stages of inflation fightMore from Barkin: Federal workforce is only 2% of national job marketUS treasury auctions off $70 million of 5 year notes at a high yield of 4.123%Fed's Barr: Monetary policy is tied to financial stabilityThe House doesn't have the votes for the budget resolution. Stocks down, yields downUS House speaker Johnson opens the door to delaying budget voteSheinbaum says she aims to close a tariff deal with the US by next TuesdayOpposing signals from Canada and Mexico around tariff deadlineUS Treasury Sec Bessent: US economy is brittle underneathGerman's Merz: It is ruled out in the near future that we will reform the debt brakeUS December CaseShiller 20-city house price index +4.5% y/y vs +4.4% expectedBank of America CEO: We don't expect the Fed to cut rates furtherECB's Schnabel: It's becoming increasingly unlikely that rates are holding back spendingECB's Schnabel: Subdued growth not proof of restrictive policy

Gold down $35 to $2916US 10-year yields down 10 bps to 4.29%WTI crude oil down $1.60 to $69.10S&P 500 down 0.5%EUR leads, CAD lags

On Friday I outlined 8 things that are weighing on market sentiment and that continues to be the case. Today, soft US consumer confidence underscored fears that the spending is softening and that triggered a round of selling in equities, buying in bonds and softness in the US dollar. In addition, Congress seems to be stalled on the Trump tax cut plan, though we may get a vote later.

The euro is at the intersection of a few trends right now. Peace is a tailwind and Schnabel continues her hawkish turn. At the same time, optimism about German spending has been a driven this week and Merz today said reforming the debt brake won't be done in the near-term and is 'complex' so that pours some cold water on that theme.

The yen continues to find a steady bid as the risk-off theme dominates. Warren Buffett was a tell on the weekend as he talked about continuing to buy Japanese assets while staying on the sidelines in the US. Technically, today's break of 149.00 worked its way down to 148.55, which is the lowest since October. It looks to close right at the figure though, which doesn't make for a clean break.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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