Game state – factors that include whether a team is winning, drawing or losing, or down to 10 men – can dictate how a team plays in a given match. By isolating every team’s expected goals numbers based on game state, we can get a better sense of how they respond when taking the lead or falling behind. Game state can have a large impact on the numbers from an individual match. Arsenal – one of the best sides in the Premier League, with one of the best defences in the division – have conceded more shots (116) this season than Ipswich Town (114). They’ve completed fewer passes than Brentford (2,830 to 2,810) and have seen less of the ball on average than Newcastle (49.5% vs 49.1%
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