Fundamental OverviewThe bullish momentum in the US Dollar seems to be waning as GBPUSD couldn’t print a new low despite another set of strong US data. In fact, the US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin and the US Jobless Claims came out much better than expected. One caveat is that the market has now priced out the aggressive rate cuts expectations and it’s almost perfectly in line with the Fed’s projections. Therefore, we will likely need stronger US data and especially signs of a pickup in inflation to see the market pricing in an earlier pause in the Fed’s easing cycle. The next big risk events will be in November when we get the October data, the FOMC policy
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