Israel appears to be on a winning streak in its bid to reorder the Middle East. But potent biases and fallacies threaten its final victory The ancient Greek historian Thucydides, the “father of realism,” in his History of the Peloponnesian War remarked that the Athenian allies “were making judgments based more on dim desire than on firm forethought, since humans are accustomed to hand over to unreflecting hope, what they long for, yet to thrust aside with autocratic reasoning, what they do not wish for.” This human weakness of one-sided wishful thinking can partly explain the startling historical pattern that many
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