BofA anticipates the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut the overnight rate by 25 basis points in its September 4 meeting, bringing it to 4.25%. Despite CAD's recent rally, the currency is not expected to move significantly post-meeting, as it is nearing its short-term fair value against the USD. BofA forecasts USD/CAD to retrace to around 1.36 in Q3 2024 and potentially end the year near 1.35.Key Points:BoC Rate Cut Expectation:BofA expects a 25bp cut in the BoC's overnight rate target to 4.25%.The cut is anticipated due to weak growth, rising unemployment, and declining inflation.Current CAD Valuation:CAD has rallied by 3% to a mid-1.34 range but is no longer considered undervalued.At the recent
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