The emphasis the two major presidential campaigns are putting on swing states understates the playing field for the 2024 election. It’s the swing voters inside the swing states that matter. For most of this election year, the vast majority of Americans have been frozen in place, largely depending on their views of former President Donald Trump, but also on their perceptions of President Joe Biden’s ability to perform presidential duties for four more years. But now Biden is gone from the equation, Vice President Kamala Harris is atop the Democratic ticket, and a fresh calculus is taking form. The new campaign has a new character. It is, to be sure, a very close race. But Harris is surging na
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