Barring some extraordinary event, Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be running against each other again this November. According to public surveys, a substantial share of the electorate simply does not believe that this will be the case. Could this dynamic be influencing early national head-to-head polling between Biden and Trump? More than 550 polls have been tracked since January 2023 in Decision Desk HQ/The Hill’s polling average, and Trump currently leads Joe Biden by 2.2 points nationally. On Election Day in 2020, Biden led Trump by more than 7 points, per polling averages, and he won the popular vote by 4.5 points. Since then, Trump has been impeached for inciting an insurrection a
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