Polls show an incredibly tight presidential race, but one factor that polling has a hard time revealing is who will actually show up to vote. Looking at the history of presidential elections, turnout fluctuates in unexpected ways. 2024 may be no different. Despite the high emotions on both sides, we may very well see a drop-off in turnout that has little to do with the candidates. It is easy to be fooled by the last election. With so much of the vote taken by absentee ballots, 2020 was a huge outlier; 62 percent of eligible voters participated, the highest turnout since 1960. And even that understates the case — when John F. Kennedy defeated Richard Nixon, the country was almost hal
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