The biggest threat to Joe Biden’s reelection is not defection, it’s discouragement. Sure, some voters who backed Biden in 2020 will switch to Donald Trump, the virtually certain Republican nominee. But the president’s real problem will be the disillusioned Democrats who stay home or support a third-party candidate. Recent polling highlights the critical importance of the Discouragement Factor. In an ABC poll, 76 percent of all voters say that the country is headed in the wrong direction, and 62% of Democrats say they’d like to replace Biden at the top of their ticket. The landscape is starting to resemble 2016, when lack of enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton — particularly among leftists, who se
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