The macro economy, like the global climate, is a complex system (highly nonlinear and buffeted by random shocks) that defies attempts to model it and predict its future path. The challenge of estimating GDP, employment and the general levels of prices and interest rates — along with their directions, even in the near or medium terms — is daunting enough. The Biden administration, nevertheless, recently convened the first of a series of four workshops under the auspices of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine aimed at “incorporating Climate Into Macroeconomic Modeling.” Errors of the past notwithstanding — few if any macroeconomists foresaw the Great Depressi
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