While there are no ironclad laws of politics, two tendencies in the United States – midterm swings against the incumbent party (the “midterm blues”) and the negative electoral effects of inflation and unemployment (“political business cycles”) – come pretty close. US President Joe Biden (whose approval rating has sunk for the past year) and the Democrats should not be surprised if they suffer a massive rout in the 2022 midterm elections. But other long-accepted political truths have been discarded. For decades after World War II, two-party competition within a majoritarian system was thought to have a moderating effect. According to the celebrated “median voter theorem,” originally propose
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