The Chicago Bears’ Week 10 bye was perfect for this team. It split a strong schedule in half and will give them valuable time to get key pieces healthy. It also came at a perfect time for me to revisit my expectations and bold predictions post, something that’s become an annual presence here at BN Bears.
The Bears are 7-2, one game better than I had them at this point in my preseason stab at predicting each game’s score on the schedule. I’ll always be happy to be wrong when the reality surpasses the prediction. But let’s see how I’m doing on the rest of the expectations and predictions, with eight games to play before another regular season is in the books.
Reasonable Expectations for the 2026 Chicago Bears
Original Prediction
Caleb Williams will become the Chicago Bears’ first 4,000-yard passer. Williams threw for 3,541 yards in his rookie season and then a franchise-record 3,942 yards in his sophomore campaign and first under Head Coach Ben Johnson. With the franchise record in tow and a second year in Johnson’s offense, there’s no reason to believe 4,000 yards isn’t the floor for Williams this season and beyond. His receiving corps is as good as any collection I’ve ever seen in Bears uniforms; Johnson is calling plays, and Williams has seemingly taken the next step by all indications from Halas Hall during camp, including from his biggest critic, Johnson.
How It’s Going
The hamstring injury that cost Williams three games this season is going to hurt the chances of this one coming to fruition. Williams threw for 269 yards against Carolina in Week 1 and 138 before he went down the next week against Minnesota. When he returned from the injury, he posted back-to-back 300-yard performances and has thrown for 247 and 279 yards since, bringing his season total to 1,546 passing yards, with eight games to play. Williams would need to average 306.75 yards per game the rest of the way to reach 4,000. Not impossible, but if he did, we’re talking MVP votes coming his way.
Likelihood: Longshot
Oct 22, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) passes against New England Patriots linebacker Christian Elliss (53) during the fourth quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-Imagn ImagesOriginal Prediction
He’s also going to break the franchise’s single-season passing touchdown record. Take everything I said above and apply it to this. Williams threw for 20 touchdowns during his rookie season and 27 last year, and I see no reason we can’t expect 30 this season (the record is 29, set by Erik Kramer in 1995).
How It’s Going
Williams is at 8 passing touchdowns, and like the yardage, the three missed games will hurt this one. Williams needs to average 2.75 touchdowns per contest for the rest of the season to break the record. Something like six three-touchdown games and two two-touchdown games would do the trick. We’ll see.
Likelihood: Longshot
Original Prediction
Colston Loveland will lead the Chicago Bears in catches. Loveland’s 58 receptions led Chicago receivers last season, and he’ll do it again, this time with more receptions. I’m not going to get into how many just yet, because my big season predictions for Loveland will fit better under the bold predictions section of this piece.
How It’s Going
I guess we’ll get all of the misses out of the way now. Loveland’s usage this season has been borderline maddening, making this feel like a long shot, but there’s a chance this hits. Loveland has 37 catches on 57 targets through nine games. Despite the usage no one would have bet on, Loveland is second on the team in receptions with 37, just 12 behind Luther Burden III’s 49. If Loveland’s usage increases down the stretch, he could still surpass LB3 for the team lead when it’s all said and done.
Likelihood: Possible
Nov 2, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Chicago Bears tight end Colston Loveland (84) runs after the catch against the Seattle Seahawks during the second quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn ImagesOriginal Prediction
Austin Booker will log a career-best in sacks. Booker’s ascension toward the end of the season was impressive, and I think he’s going to pick up where he left off from a production standpoint. Booker recorded 4.5 sacks last season, and I think he’ll finish this season with at least seven sacks.
How It’s Going
Hey, look at that! We’re already there (sort of). The prediction was a career-high in sacks, and Booker has 5 already, so that’s in the bag. But I upped the ante and said he’ll finish the season with at least seven sacks. With 5 in the bag and eight games to play, I’m feeling pretty good about that one (especially with Jeffery Simmons in the mix on the defensive line these days).
Likelihood: Hit + Extremely Likely
Bold Predictions for the 2026 Chicago Bears
Original Prediction: The Bears will win 12 games this season and repeat as NFC North champions.
How It’s Going: So far, so good. They’re at 7 wins and in first place in the NFC North at the bye. Five more wins while holding onto the top spot in the division down the stretch, and this one hits.
Likelihood: Pretty Good
Original Prediction: Ben Johnson will win the NFL Coach of the Year Award.
How It’s Going: If the above hits, then this has to. Or there has to be a serious conversation about how the award is voted on. At this point, this seems like a slam dunk for Ben.
Likelihood: Pretty Good
Aug 22, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson stands on the sidelines during the second half in the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn ImagesOriginal Prediction: Colston Loveland will break Mike Ditka’s single-season franchise record for receiving yards by a tight end.
How It’s Going: The record is 1,076 yards, and Loveland has 363. Believe it or not, he needs 89.1 yards per game to reach Ditka’s 1961 record. Again, his usage rates would have to climb significantly for that to be possible, but given his usage down the stretch last season, it’s not impossible.
Likelihood: Possible
Original Prediction: Chicago will have two 1,000-yard receivers this season.
How It’s Going: Luther Burden III has 644 yards, Rome Odunze has 528, and Loveland, as we already discussed, has 363. Burden would need 44.5 yards per game, Odunze 59 yards per game, and Loveland 79.6 yards per game for any of the three to reach 1,000 receiving yards. I feel pretty good about two of those three getting there with eight games to play.
Likelihood: Possible
Original Prediction: Bears rookie Zavion Thomas will have more than two kick/punt return touchdowns this season.
How It’s Going: Having a kick return touchdown wiped off the board due to a soft holding penalty last week certainly hurts that prediction. It’s not impossible, especially since he’s getting better in that department with every game, but it would be pretty impressive if he got there.
Likelihood: Longshot
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