The 49ers are +540 and the Bills are +600 at DraftKings, still the top two in the Super Bowl LXI odds after Week 9, with Jacksonville up to +750.
That last number is the story. The Jaguars won by 23 in Baltimore last Thursday, then spent Monday trading for Jessie Bates III and Davon Godchaux. DraftKings now has Jacksonville as the AFC favorite. Not Buffalo. Jacksonville.
Super Bowl LXI Odds After Week 9
San Francisco is the Super Bowl LXI favorite at DraftKings at +540, with Buffalo second at +600. At bet365, BetMGM, and FanDuel the two were tied at +550 on Sunday, so the gap at the top is basically a coin flip between the 49ers and the Bills. Nobody else is shorter than +750 anywhere.
Odds below are from DraftKings as of Tuesday morning, after Monday Night Football. The range in parentheses is bet365, BetMGM, Caesars, and FanDuel, posted Sunday before the late games finished.
San Francisco 49ers: +540 (+550 to +575) Buffalo Bills: +600 (+550 at all four) Jacksonville Jaguars: +750 (+750 at all four) Chicago Bears: +800 (+750 to +850) Kansas City Chiefs: +1000 (+1050 to +1200) Los Angeles Rams: +1200 (+1200 to +1300) Cincinnati Bengals: +1200 (+1200 to +1300) Denver Broncos: +1500 (+1400 to +1600) Seattle Seahawks: +1600 (+1500 to +1800) Detroit Lions: +1900 (+1500 to +1800) Green Bay Packers: +2100 (+2000 to +2200) Minnesota Vikings and New England Patriots: +2400 eachShop around on the Patriots. DraftKings has them at +2400, while the other four books ranged from +2800 to +3300. On the Lions it runs the other way, with DraftKings the longest number on the board.
Who Is the Favorite to Win Super Bowl LXI?
The San Francisco 49ers are the favorite to win Super Bowl LXI at +540 at DraftKings, which works out to an implied probability of about 15.6 percent. The 49ers are 7-1 after a 38-17 win over Las Vegas, and their NFC price shortened from +250 to +194 in one day. The NFC West is -650.
That division number does a lot of the work. A first-round bye is worth real money in a futures price, and the market thinks San Francisco is the clear pick to get the NFC’s.
There is noise, though. Rookie DT Gracen Halton broke his left ankle against the Raiders and is out for the season, and CBs Renardo Green (back) and Deommodore Lenoir (foot) are day to day, per Kyle Shanahan. Then there is Brandon Aiyuk. The league took him off the reserve/left squad list Monday and gave the 49ers a two-week roster exemption, so they have until November 23 to add him, release him, or trade him. Shanahan said it means nothing to the team. Fine. It is still a distraction nobody else at the top of this board has.
The Bills Hold at +600 After Monday Night
The Buffalo Bills are second in the Super Bowl LXI odds at +600 at DraftKings after a 23-6 win at Minnesota on Monday night. Buffalo is 7-1, James Cook ran 31 times for 107 yards and a touchdown, and the AFC East price went from -525 to -850. The Super Bowl price did not move.
Why not? Two linemen. LT Dion Dawkins (ribs) and LG Alec Anderson (ankle) were both inactive, and their status for the Jets game is open. CB Christian Benford also left in the third quarter with a right wrist injury.
Buffalo held a team to six points on the road with two starting linemen out. That is a good team. At +600, though, you are paying for a good team.
Why Did the Jaguars Jump to +750?
The Jacksonville Jaguars moved from +850 to +750 at DraftKings because they won big and then got better at the trade deadline. Jacksonville beat Baltimore 33-10 on Thursday night to go 6-2. On Monday it traded a 2027 second-round pick and a 2028 fifth to Atlanta for safety Jessie Bates III, and added DT Davon Godchaux from New Orleans in a separate deal.
Both moves plug holes. FS Eric Murray (elbow) and NT DaVon Hamilton (torn quad) are out for the season, and losing two starters on one defense usually shows up in November. The Jaguars just replaced both.
The AFC board tells you how much the market liked it. Jacksonville is +285 to win the conference at DraftKings, ahead of Buffalo at +310. The AFC South is -1200.
The Bears Drift to +800 Despite a Win
The Chicago Bears went from +750 to +800 at DraftKings even though they beat Tampa Bay 27-24 on Sunday night. Chicago is 7-2 after Cairo Santos hit a 38-yard field goal as time expired, but Caleb Williams threw four interceptions and the Bears turned it over five times. The market noticed the turnovers more than the result.
Jaylon Johnson’s 67-yard pick-six is a big reason that game was even close at the end. Luther Burden III caught seven passes for 97 yards and a touchdown before leaving late with a concussion, and CB Tyrique Stevenson Sr. (hand) did not return.
Williams felt it most. His MVP price went from +500 to +1400 at DraftKings after the game, and it sits at +1600 now. Chicago is on its bye this week, and the NFC North actually shortened from +160 to +144, because Minnesota lost and Detroit is still at +245.
I like this price better than last week’s. Same team, same 7-2 record, a longer number, and a week off to get Burden and Stevenson healthy.
The Biggest Super Bowl Odds Movers From Week 9
Green Bay Packers: +2600 to +2100
Jordan Love threw for 372 yards and three touchdowns in a 45-27 win at New England, and his MVP price went from +2500 to +650 overnight. The catch is Josh Jacobs. He fractured his right ring finger, he is having surgery this week, and Matt LaFleur said he cannot play through it. Green Bay is 6-3 with Minnesota coming to Lambeau.
Los Angeles Rams: +1000 to +1200
The Rams beat Washington 20-13 and still lost ground. Puka Nacua sprained the MCL and PCL in his right knee and has turf toe, and Sean McVay expects him to miss at least a month. The ACL is fine. With the Week 11 bye, Week 15 is the earliest he comes back.
Cincinnati Bengals: Holding at +1200
Joe Burrow threw for 271 yards and three touchdowns in a 34-17 win over Atlanta in Madrid. The Bengals are 6-2, -230 in the AFC North, and Burrow is now the MVP favorite at +210. Pittsburgh visits Sunday night.
Kansas City Chiefs: +1000
The Chiefs routed the Jets 35-12, but Patrick Mahomes hurt his right elbow. Andy Reid said the imaging was more positive than negative and called him day to day. Watch Wednesday’s practice report before you touch this one.
Minnesota Vikings and New England Patriots: +2200 to +2400
Both lost at home. The Vikings managed six points against Buffalo, and the Patriots gave up 45 to Green Bay, then lost RB Rhamondre Stevenson for the next few weeks.
How the Trade Deadline Can Move Super Bowl Odds
The NFL trade deadline is Tuesday, which means this board can still change before you place a bet. Jacksonville already showed how fast a futures price reacts to a deadline deal.
Bet before the news if you have a read on a team that needs one piece. Compare books after a big trade. Not every book moves at the same speed. Convert each price to implied probability. A move from +850 to +750 sounds small, but it is a jump from about 10.5 percent to 11.8 percent. Look at the injury report too. Nacua and Jacobs moved two prices more than any trade did.For a full rundown of where to place a futures bet, see our list of the best sports betting sites, and compare this board to last week’s Super Bowl LXI odds after Week 8.
My Super Bowl LXI Picks After Week 9
The Bears at +800 or longer are still my favorite ticket. FanDuel was at +850 on Sunday, so check there first. Chicago has the second-shortest NFC price at +520, and nothing about Sunday night changed what this team is. Four picks is a bad night, not a trend.
Jacksonville at +750 is a fair price, and I understand the move. I just missed the better number. If you bought at +950 two weeks ago, you are holding the ticket I want.
The one I am fading is Seattle at +1600. Drew Lock hurt his oblique against Arizona and Sam Darnold has not been cleared from his quad and rib injuries. A team that might start its third quarterback at Las Vegas is not a +1600 team to me.
Want weekly sides too? Our NFL picks page has every game for Week 10.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Super Bowl LXI after Week 9?
The San Francisco 49ers are the Super Bowl LXI favorite at +540 at DraftKings after a 38-17 win over the Raiders. The Buffalo Bills are next at +600, and the two were tied at +550 at bet365, BetMGM, and FanDuel on Sunday. No other team is shorter than +750.
What are the Bears’ Super Bowl odds right now?
The Chicago Bears are +800 to win Super Bowl LXI at DraftKings, up from +750 before their 27-24 win over Tampa Bay. Other books ranged from +750 at Caesars to +850 at FanDuel. Chicago is 7-2 and +520 to win the NFC.
Who is the AFC favorite after Week 9?
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the AFC favorite at +285 at DraftKings, ahead of the Buffalo Bills at +310. Jacksonville shortened from +350 after beating Baltimore 33-10 and trading for safety Jessie Bates III and defensive tackle Davon Godchaux on Monday.
Which team’s Super Bowl odds moved the most in Week 9?
The Green Bay Packers had one of the biggest moves, shortening from +2600 to +2100 at DraftKings after Jordan Love threw for 372 yards in a 45-27 win at New England. The Los Angeles Rams drifted from +1000 to +1200 after Puka Nacua’s knee injury.
What does +540 mean in Super Bowl odds?
A price of +540 means a $100 bet returns $540 in profit if that team wins the Super Bowl. The implied probability at +540 is about 15.6 percent, which is how often the team would need to win for the bet to break even.
Responsible Gambling
A Super Bowl future holds your money until February. That makes it easy to forget how much you have tied up, especially if you add a ticket every week after a big win. Decide on one season budget for futures before you place the first one.
Only bet money you can afford to lose. A futures bet is a long shot almost by definition, and even the favorite at +540 loses far more often than it wins.
Treat it as entertainment. Use the deposit limits and time limits your sportsbook offers, and take a break if betting stops being fun.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Responsible Gaming Resources
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