A couple offseasons ago, Patrick Sandoval was an intriguing reclamation free agent of the type the Chicago Cubs considered closely. The former top prospect and brief ace had just been non-tendered by the Angels after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and teams knew that if they signed him, he might not appear for them until 2026. The Cubs did not ultimately sign Sandoval, but it was unsurprising that the Red Sox, who’d recently hired pitching guru Craig Breslow away from the Cubs as their new President of Baseball Operations, did.
Sandoval indeed missed all of 2025 before returning to mixed results in 2026: 5.12 ERA over 70.1 IP (15 games, 13 starts), 3.77 FIP, 22.7% K, 10.0% BB, 37.8% GB, 0.90 HR/9, 6.5% barrel, 34.6% hard, .382 BABIP, 69.0% LOB. The results were not great, and the walk and groundball rates stand out as not good. But the rest of the numbers suggest a guy who was probably better than those results, and who, perhaps another year clear of surgery could be very good again. He is just 30 years old, after all, and the velocity came back.
Thus, two years after he was an intriguing buy-low candidate in free agency, it sounds like Patrick Sandoval is right back in that category again. There is no mention of the Chicago Cubs, specifically, but there was interest last time around, and it feels like the kind of thing the Cubs would explore.
Via The Athletic:
“Patrick Sandoval isn’t prominent in any outlet’s list of top free agents, including The Athletic’s. But just as he did in December 2024, Sandoval is again drawing interest beyond what one might expect from his track record, according to people familiar with his market.
Sandoval was six months removed from Tommy John surgery in 2024 when the Boston Red Sox signed him to a two-year, $18.25 million contract. The Red Sox banked on Sandoval becoming productive the second year of the deal. But he didn’t return until July and finished with a 5.12 ERA in 70 1/3 innings.
Why, then, are teams again intrigued?
A sampling of people in the industry revealed several reasons. Sandoval, who turned 30 in October, is still relatively young. His surgery is behind him. His strikeout rate, even last season, was above league average. And before his surgery, it was well above.”
From 2019 to 2022, Patrick Sandoval’s strikeout rate was 24.1%, which would be the top-25 range among starting pitchers these days. He wasn’t quite there in 2026, but, again, being further clear from surgery, with the velocity having returned and the stuff perhaps coming along with it, you do have some reason to bet on Sandoval taking a step back toward his pre-surgery self in 2027. His was a particularly long absence, and maybe he just needs more competitive innings to get back to being himself.
The Athletic also points out a bonkers statistic in general about teams targeting more left-handed pitching: apparently 48.8% of plate appearances in 2026 were taken by lefty batters, which was a record year by far in the expansion era. That’s really crazy when you think about it, because we otherwise mentally ballpark 35 to 40% of plate appearances coming from lefties. Sandoval is not, himself, an enormous splits guy, but he does neutralize fellow lefties a little bit better than righties.
At a pitch level, I have no doubt that the Cubs like that Sandoval is a guy who routinely works with four pitches and throws up to six. They no doubt also like that he throws a cut-ride four-seamer, of the type they’ve targeted many times before. And I also think the Cubs just have a predilection for targeting lefties, all else equal.
If the Cubs were looking at Sandoval as a play for whiffs, though, one thing they’ll have to figure out: whether more is coming back post-surgery. Sandoval’s whiff rate, CSW, chase, and in-zone contact rate all headed in the wrong direction in 2026, so that would need a turnaround if he’s going to find success again.
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