The Padres are among the teams that have shown interest in Tarik Skubal in the early days of the offseason, reports Jon Morosi of The MLB Network. San Diego has been speculated as a dark horse for the two-time Cy Young winner, but this is the first definitive link to the game’s top free agent.
It’s a fascinating offseason for the Friars. They’ve dramatically scaled back free agent spending since the 2023 passing of former owner Peter Seidler. The Seidler family sold the franchise to a group led by José E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones over the summer. That’s raised optimism among the fanbase about the Padres diving back into the top end of the market.
The Padres’ series of backloaded contracts left them with a dramatically higher luxury tax number than cash payroll in recent years. MLBTR’s Payroll Tracker (courtesy of contributor Ethan Hullihen) shows they finished the 2026 season with a tax number around $269.43MM and an actual payroll in the $224MM range. They’re projected around $193MM in both figures for the 2027 season, including arbitration estimates. Next year’s cutoffs won’t be established until there’s a new collective bargaining agreement in place as MLB pushes for a cap/floor system. (The cap wouldn’t take effect until at least 2028 even if the league were to get the MLBPA to budge on its longstanding firm opposition.)
Skubal is widely expected to beat the current $43.333MM record annual value for a pitcher. MLBTR predicts he’ll both establish a new AAV record and handily top the $325MM guarantee held by Yoshinobu Yamamoto. We forecasted a nine-year, $425MM contract; San Diego’s franchise record is their $340MM extension for Fernando Tatis Jr. They’ve only given out a $30MM annual value to one player, Manny Machado — though they technically did so on both Machado’s initial free agent deal and his 2023 extension to override his opt-out clause. Machado and Xander Bogaerts are the two players to whom they’ve given a free agent deal exceeding $200MM.
The Padres need to overhaul essentially their entire rotation. Michael King opted out, while the team declined what amounted to a two-year, $32MM option on Nick Pivetta. Deadline acquisitions Casey Mize and Robbie Ray seem unlikely to return as free agents. Walker Buehler, Griffin Canning and Lucas Giolito also all hit the market.
Randy Vásquez is San Diego’s only returning pitcher who started more than six games this year. It’s unclear what they can expect from Joe Musgrove or whether Yu Darvish will continue his MLB career. There’s a chance that not a single member of the team’s season-opening rotation is yet on the roster. Even if they re-sign King or pull off a surprise top-of-the-market strike for Skubal, they’ll need to do a ton of work building the depth.
Skubal is not tied to a qualifying offer, as the midseason trade from Detroit to the Dodgers rendered him ineligible. The Friars issued a QO to Adrian Morejon and would receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft if he signs elsewhere. Trevor Rogers was the only starting pitcher to receive a QO this year. The Padres would surrender their second- and fifth-highest picks, as well as $1MM in international bonus pool space, if they signed Rogers. No other free agent starter would come attached to draft compensation.
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