The 2026 NWSL play-offs have arrived. Who will lift the inaugural Championship title? We provide our Opta supercomputer predictions.
The 2026 NWSL Play-offs have arrived, bringing with them another fiercely contested battle for the Championship.
Following our end-of-season projections, the Opta supercomputer has, for the first time, simulated the play-off bracket to estimate each team’s chances of lifting the trophy and being crowned NWSL champions.
Gotham FC head into the post-season as slight favourites, but San Diego Wave are close behind. Kansas City Current and Washington Spirit remain firmly in the mix.
With eight teams in pursuit of one title, who will emerge as the 2026 NWSL champions?
Who Will Win the 2026 NWSL Championship?
Gotham have already made history this season. Now, they have their sights set on something even bigger.
Having secured their first-ever NWSL Shield with a 2-0 victory over Utah Royals on Decision Day, Gotham enter the play-offs looking to complete a historic double and defend the Championship they won in 2025.
Strengthened by the summer arrivals of former Chelsea stars Sam Kerr and Guro Reiten, Gotham have assembled a formidable squad. Should they go all the way, they would become the first side since North Carolina Courage in 2018 and 2019 to win back-to-back Championships.
They would also join North Carolina and Orlando Pride among the clubs to have won the Shield and Championship in the same season. But can they do it?
According to the supercomputer, Gotham have a 21.2% probability of lifting the trophy, making them marginal favourites in what promises to be one of the most competitive post-season battles in recent memory.
San Diego Wave are close behind on 20.4%, followed by Kansas City Current (18.0%) and Washington Spirit (14.3%). Indeed, just 6.9 percentage points separate the four leading contenders.
Interestingly, while Gotham are the most likely champions, they are not the team with the best chance of reaching the final.
That distinction belongs to San Diego Wave, who have a 41.4% probability of reaching the Championship game, narrowly ahead of Gotham (39.5%). Kansas City (31.4%) and Washington (30.3%) who complete the leading quartet.
Among the chasing pack, Angel City have a 9.3% chance of winning their first Championship, followed by Portland Thorns (7.6%), Seattle Reign (5.0%) and Utah Royals (4.2%).
With no team given even a one-in-four chance of lifting the trophy, the supercomputer suggests there could be plenty of twists and turns before the champions are crowned.
But first, eight teams must navigate four quarter-final encounters. So, who does the supercomputer favour in each matchup?
NWSL 2026 Play-Off Quarter-Final Predictions
San Diego Wave vs Utah Royals
San Diego Wave enter their quarter-final against Utah Royals as the strongest favourites of the opening round. The Opta supercomputer gives them a 57.7% probability of victory in 90 minutes, compared to 20.4% for Utah, with a draw playing out in 22.0% of simulations.
History favours San Diego, who have won all six previous meetings between the sides, making Utah the only NWSL opponent against whom they boast a perfect record.
Indeed, the Wave are one of just two teams, along with Kansas City, that Utah has not won a point against since returning to the NWSL in 2024.
Jonas Eidevall’s side also arrive in electric form, unbeaten in seven matches (W6 D1), their longest such run in club history. Their 1.93 points per match this season is also a club record, surpassing their Shield-winning campaign in 2023 (1.68).
Trinity Byars has been central to that success, recording 14 goal contributions (11 goals, three assists), including four against Utah in August, when she scored twice and provided two assists.
But the Royals have enjoyed a memorable campaign of their own, reaching the play-offs for the first time after setting club records for points per match (1.57), winning percentage (46.7%) and goals per game (1.47).
Cloé Lacasse has been the Royals’ standout performer this season, setting a club record with 18 goal contributions. Her 10 assists are the joint-second-most by any player in a single NWSL campaign, and they have gone to eight different teammates, the most different players assisted by a single player in an NWSL regular season on record.
However, Utah earned only 12 points against fellow play-off teams, the fewest among the eight qualifiers this season (W3 D3 L8).
Kansas City Current vs Angel City
Kansas City Current may have home advantage against Angel City, but the supercomputer suggests this could be one of the closest encounters of the round. The hosts have a 50.6% chance of victory, compared to 24.4% for Angel City, while the probability of a draw stands at 25.0%.
The Current have turned CPKC Stadium into a fortress, going unbeaten at home throughout the regular season for the second consecutive campaign (W11 D4). In fact, they have lost just once in their last 38 home matches across all competitions (W30 D7 L1), that defeat coming against eventual champions Gotham FC in last season’s quarter-finals.
That said, Angel City have already demonstrated they can trouble Kansas City, avoiding defeat in both meetings this season (W1 D1), and they arrive in exceptional form.
The visitors are unbeaten in their last 10 regular-season matches (W8 D2), becoming just the second team in NWSL history to head into the play-offs on a 10-game unbeaten run or better. The other? North Carolina Courage, who went on to win the Championship in 2018.
Haley Hopkins has been instrumental in that run, scoring seven goals in her final five regular-season appearances. Only Nadia Nadim, in 2014, had previously managed that feat in NWSL history.
Youth has been at the heart of Angel City’s success. Players aged 23 or younger accounted for 48.2% of the club’s minutes played this season, the highest proportion of any NWSL side in the 2020s, while contributing 61.3% of their goals and assists.
Gotham FC vs Seattle Reign
Gotham FC begin their pursuit of successive Championships against Seattle Reign, with the Opta supercomputer giving the Shield winners a 56.5% chance of victory within 90 minutes. Seattle run out winners in 21.0% of sims, while a draw plays out in 22.5%.
History favours Gotham, who are unbeaten in their last eight meetings with Seattle. It is the longest unbeaten run any team has enjoyed against the Reign in club history.
Gotham’s success has been built on an exceptional defence, conceding just 23 goals in 30 regular-season matches, an average of 0.77 per game, the best in the 2026 season and the fourth-lowest rate in NWSL history.
At the other end, Jaedyn Shaw and Sam Kerr have delivered when it matters most. At least one of the pair contributed to 16 of Gotham’s final 23 regular-season goals (since July 18), with Shaw registering 11 goal involvements (seven goals, four assists) and Kerr eight (four goals, four assists) during that period.
Much of Seattle’s attacking threat will come from Maddie Mercado, who led the team with 10 goals, including a league-high five headers. No player was on the receiving end of more successful crosses than Mercado (40) this season.
Washington Spirit vs Portland Thorns
The final quarter-final sees Washington Spirit face Portland Thorns in a rematch of last season’s play-off semi-final, and the Opta supercomputer predicts this will be the closest tie of the weekend. The Spirit are the favourites according to the supercomputer, winning 50.5% of simulations. Portland come out on top in 24.4%, while 25.1% end level after 90 minutes.
Last year’s play-off meeting saw the Spirit knock Portland out, and they have history on their side at Audi Field. They have progressed from all six home play-off matches in club history; they are the only NWSL team never to have been eliminated on home soil.
However, Washington’s recent home form has been less convincing, losing five of their final eight matches at Audi Field, although they did win their last two.
Portland, meanwhile, arrive unbeaten in five away matches (W3 D2), but have not won on the road against a fellow play-off qualifier since April.
Much could depend on the performances of two of the league’s biggest stars. Washington won 13 of the 15 matches in which Trinity Rodman registered a goal contribution this season (W13 D1 L1), with the forward involved in the winning goal on nine occasions, equalling Sam Kerr’s NWSL record from 2019.
For Portland, Sophia Wilson has been as influential away from home, scoring 10 goals on the road this season to equal Kerr’s record from 2018. She has also scored in six consecutive away matches, the second-longest such streak in NWSL history.
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