Surveying the wreckage of his political ambitions, Vice-President JD Vance didn’t even wait 24 hours before pointing the finger of blame for Maga’s rout at his boss.
Lest there was any doubt that Donald Trump woke up the morning after the midterms feebly quacking like a lame duck, Vance’s 600-word verdict on X made sure the world knew that his boss had been knee-capped by mutinous voters – and by his own vice-president.
Vance outlined four routes to Republican recovery after the Democrats crashed through GOP seats and seized control of Congress: “1) End the Iran War. 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation. 3) Put America First. 4) Change our relationship with Israel.”
But Vance himself is now the lamest of lame ducks, much more so than Trump. His post was a naked attempt to get ahead of any change of course by Trump but he won’t get the credit and his influence is shrinking.
Trump himself retains a huge array of executive powers, from vetoing acts of Congress to implementing foreign policy. But vice-presidents have no independent will of their own and can’t be fired. Unless Vance resigns his post, he will spend the next two years wandering around the White House like a ghost, shunned by those who thought he was the future once.
This group includes Trump himself who said brutally yesterday: “Maybe he [Vance] won’t run.” Trump has never been one to forgive the slightest act of disloyalty, even though – shell-shocked by defeat – he grudgingly agreed with Vance’s assessment that the Iran war was at least partially responsible for the Republicans’ shellacking. At a press conference in the shambling White House ballroom construction site, Trump insisted: “As far as that war is concerned, I would have done nothing different.”
Trump mused that Maga’s love for him was non-transferable. “There was such love at those rallies,” he boasted self-servingly. “It was incredible. We weren’t able to transfer that love to candidates.” The same applies with knobs on to Vance, who has never excited the adoration from voters.
Year by year, month by month, all respect for Vance has evaporated. After his success in 2016 with his memoir, Hillbilly Elegy, his U-turn towards Trump turned off centrists. His hostility to immigrants – such as accusing Haitians of eating family pets – was a seeming betrayal of his own biracial family. And shortly after publishing a book on religion, Vance’s cynical decision to support a campaign ad featuring a mother’s accusations against Amy Acton, who was raped as a girl by her stepfather, was unfathomable.
Acton is now the duly elected Democratic governor of Ohio while Vance’s finance bro Vivek Ramaswamy, who promoted the ad, lies in the dust. The veteran Democrat Sherrod Brown took back Vance’s old Senate seat in the state. For all his smarts, the Yale law graduate has run into a brick wall politically. If Republicans can’t win in his own home state, politically he’s as good as dead.
Naturally, the last person to realise this is Vance himself. If we examine his X post, it is obvious where he thinks his path to the 2028 presidency lies. He intends to court the support of Elon Musk and libertarian techies like his long-standing ally Peter Thiel in promoting a bullying, supremacist version of “America First” (thereby betraying Ukraine and Europe). The kicker about changing US relations to Israel suggests he also hopes to rely on the internet megaphone of critics such as broadcaster Tucker Carlson.
But the power of these “influencers” is also fading. Musk poured $500m into the midterm elections for nothing. Half of that was spent in Texas, where the victorious senate candidate James Talarico turned the Tesla trillionaire into a villain for trying to buy the vote. Carlson has alienated a large swathe of Republicans after hosting the white supremacist, Nick Fuentes, on his show.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was…
— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026As far as rivals are concerned, Vance’s policy prescriptions aim to put deep red Maga water between himself and Marco Rubio, the secretary of state. Gone is any idea of a “dream ticket” with Vance as President and Rubio as his vice-presidential side-kick. There is no reason for Rubio to indulge in this mirage anymore. Overnight, as the midterm results poured in, Fox News hosts were already declaring Vance toast and starting to promote Rubio’s candidacy. As a former foreign policy hawk, Rubio has never been comfortable with “America First” isolationism.
Another Republican is also in the wings. Ron DeSantis, the outgoing governor of Florida, who won initial support from Rupert Murdoch media outlets when he challenged Trump in the 2024 Republican primary. Both Rubio and DeSantis are from Florida, one of the few red states to survive the Democratic onslaught.
Trump’s nickname for DeSantis was “Ron DeSanctimonious”. This is now tantamount to an advertisement for his candidacy, given US voters’ stated disgust with the scale of corruption in politics. DeSantis described the midterms result as “close to an extinction level event for Republicans in many parts of the country” – the first step towards describing himself as the right man to revive them. Compared with these two, Vance is in danger of becoming a laughing stock, in office but not in power.
The jibes have already begun. In Michigan, the US’s first elected Muslim senator, Abdul El-Sayed, couldn’t resist trolling him: “JD, habibi, there is this delicious irony in the fact that you’re constitutionally obligated to swear me in, in January.”
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