The Collective Bargaining Agreement between MLB owners and MLB players is set to expire at midnight on December 1. At that point, no one expects negotiations to continue, as the owners will lock the players out as a pressure tactic. From there, things could go quiet for a while, with the pressure of Spring Training, Opening Day, and the TV contracts (60 games lost is a big issue for those) being the next major milestones in the process.
Is there a chance none of it happens? That a lockout is avoided by a deal struck over the next four weeks? I suppose it’s possible, given that, until the last go around, that’s what basically ALWAYS DID IN FACT HAPPEN. A lockout wasn’t, you know, a standard expectation.
But the thing is, when the proposals being made still include the one thing the players have said again, and again, and again that they will not accept, it’s hard for me to imagine much progress before the lockout.
To wit, a new proposal today from MLB owners. On the one hand, these appear on their face to be moves toward the players from previous offers. On the other hand, the red line of a cap remains:
In its proposal, MLB also set new numbers for its proposed cap and floor in 2028. The cap would be $258.2 million while the floor would be $180.2 million. In its previous proposal, the league had offered a $245.3 million ceiling and $171.2 million floor.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 3, 2026MLB proposes delaying a salary cap until the 2028 season. Raises minimum salary to $1 million in 2027. Lowers free agency to 5 years instead of 6 years.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) November 3, 2026MLB proposal: The minimum salary is for $1 million for players with at least 2 years of MLB service; $900k for others. Free agency is lowered to 5 years for players who are 30 or older.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) November 3, 2026Projected cap and floor in 2028 vs. 2026 payroll t.co/e7nLRvG2S4
— MLB (@MLB) November 3, 2026A one-year grace period for cap/floor implementation isn’t actually all that much, despite the framing there from the league. For many teams on either end of the spectrum, it would turn the 2027 season into an exercise in accountancy. A phase-in or multi-year grace period would seem more plausible if a cap/floor is to happen at all, which, obviously is not a given. You can expect a bombastic reply forthcoming from the MLBPA.
As for the other mentioned terms, there are some financial improvements over what the league has offered previously, and that’s a good and healthy part of negotiations. It’s just that until and unless the players signal a willingness to negotiate about the cap (i.e., put forth a proposal that creates a super player-friendly cap, for example), or until and unless the owners signal a willingness to negotiate about hardened luxury tax and floor or something like that (plus the owners presumably getting other things they want), there’s not a lot of real progress that can be made.
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