America is at war with itself, and the midterm elections today are a crucial battle in this fierce and vastly important conflict. If Donald Trump and the Republican Party lose both Houses of Congress by a decisive margin, this will be seen as a mass rejection by voters of his Latin American-style dictatorship in the making, rooted in exploiting racial, cultural, social and economic fissures in American society.
Sceptics argue that even if Trump suffers such a humiliation he will simply ignore it and deepen his control over America, regardless of public opinion and constitutional restraints.
He may well try to do so, but America is a winner-takes-all society, and a large part of his power is that he presents himself as a winner – even when this is obviously untrue. Look at the Presidential election in 2020, and his war against Iran which he repeatedly claims to have won despite glaring evidence to the contrary.
After his re-election in 2024, many previously hostile individuals and institutions became convinced of his invincibility and tamely capitulated to his demands for obedience and money. We will soon know if they bet on the wrong horse.
Democrats are today showing an edgy optimism that high prices and the Iran war are the rocks on which the good ship Trump will founder. The outcome of US midterm elections traditionally turn on turnout, how many voters actually go to the polls, as much as it does voter preference. Here the signs are good for the Democrats as polls show many Republicans disillusioned by Trump’s failure to meet expectations and predict they will stay at home, while those Hispanic and Black voters who defected to Trump in 2024 are redefecting back to the Democrats.
Trump himself, who used to command a broader coalition of voters than the Republican party, is now seen by many of his candidates as a liability. Yet the latest opinion polls show that one third of Americans still support Trump, despite the soaring prices of everything from diesel and gasoline to healthcare and housing. Trump himself had been campaigning ceaselessly to activate his core supporters, but by the weekend he seemed to be accepting that this might not be enough.
His last big campaign speech in Washington dwelt largely on his renovation of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. This could be dismissed as what Georgian Senator Jon Ossoff calls Trump’s “senile babbling”, which may be true, but – since Trump is usually a little more cunning than his critics give him credit for – this may also be his effort to distance himself from an impending Republican disaster.
American presidential elections always attract global attention, but this may be the first time that the midterms have attracted such obsessive international focus. “The cause of America is in great measure the cause of all mankind,” wrote the pamphleteer Thomas Paine as America was declaring its independence from Britain in 1776. This remains just as true 250 years later.
All the world wants to know if the great American democratic experiment – drawing on the liberal ideas of the 18th century European Enlightenment on reshaping human society for the benefit of all – is finally coming to a squalid end, with Trump posturing as a modern day version of Louis XIV.
It is easy enough to condemn the American elites for bowing the knee to a triumphant Trump in 2025, but the rest of the world – especially in Europe – was not far behind them. Sir Keir Starmer grovelling before Trump was a low point in modern British history and elicited nothing but fairly open contempt from the US president. Any sign that Trump is a weakened force in the US will accelerate resistance to him elsewhere in the world.
The degree of global opposition to Trump is of immediate significance, because of the strong suspicion that the US and Israel are about to launch a third round of their war against Iran.
On Monday, Trump said he was in “no rush” to do so, which is not necessarily categorical given that he has twice attacked Iran during peace negotiations, but the chances of this happening at all will be reduced if there is a Republican wipeout today. Wars which are not swift victories are difficult to conduct in the face of widespread public hostility at home.
Despite all the talk of a multipolar world, the degree to which a US leader as weird as Trump dominates the world stage underlines the extent of American predominance. At $954 billion a year, the American military budget is a third of global military spending. China may be on the rise, but America remains the one true superpower. Yet the nature of America as a country continues to mystify the rest of the world – as it does Americans themselves.
Many are surprised by the growing polarisation and raw hatred shown by Democrats and Republicans over the last quarter-century, culminating in the ferocious animosities of the midterm elections today.
Some of this is blamed on partisanship deepened by social media and the internet platforms. And it is true that as host and star of The Apprentice over 14 years, Trump has vast experience in manipulating public perceptions to his own advantage. But as a politician, he has succeeded primarily because of his ability to exacerbate and exploit deep divisions within American society.
The history of America is really a history of polarisation, the positive and dark side of American life grating against each other. America was the first great democracy, but that democracy was one where slavery was the norm. American freedom was also the freedom to oppress others, be they black slaves or native Americans.
This grim legacy lives on and Trump is the political beneficiary of it. At the heart of his appeal is male white supremacy, and this is what Maga is really about.
Immigration is a second great divisive issue in the US and always has been. The ethnic melting pot never quite worked. Animosity towards the latest wave of immigrants goes far back, once directed against the Irish, often against Jews, and currently against everybody – but especially Hispanics. Trump specialises in spewing out racist rants against small vulnerable communities like Haitians and Somalis.
A third great fissure in America is social class. A country which once lauded equality became one of the most unequal in the world. The economy might grow, but the benefits did not filter down. The Democrats became the party of college graduates and the professional classes. Trump twice appealed successfully to this bitter, left-behind America, but he has entirely failed to deliver and may now pay the price of failure.
There have always been many versions of America. Trump was the first successful leader to combine the worst of all of them. In a few hours we will know whether the most shameful and poisonous era in American history might soon be coming to an end.
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