To provide an outlook on the 2026-27 men’s college basketball season, the Opta supercomputer has run thousands of simulations to compile a preseason TRACR Top 25.
Michigan ended last season on top of college basketball, winning the second national championship in program history.
But following another offseason of NBA Draft departures and transfers, and with incoming freshmen ready to make waves, the Division I landscape has changed considerably.
The defending champion Wolverines have lost several key pieces and may find it hard to even make it back to the Final Four. Meanwhile, programs such as Florida, Iowa State and Duke enter the season with high expectations.
Heading into the new season, Florida is No. 1 in TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster), a net efficiency metric that calculates a team’s points per possession on both sides of the ball, adjusted for the strength of the opponent. The Gators, who seek to make amends for a second-round upset loss to Iowa in the NCAA Tournament, have a 36.23 TRACR, indicating how many points they would be expected to outscore an average team per 100 possessions.
Roster turnover is nothing new in college basketball, but it makes predicting the upcoming season particularly interesting. With Michigan just 12th in preseason TRACR, which teams have the best chance of claiming the title in the 2026-27 season?
Let’s tip off with a Top 25.
College Basketball Preseason TRACR Top 25
1. Florida (36.23 TRACR)
After the early exit in th NCAAs, coach Todd Golden’s Gators have plenty of motivation to bounce back with their talented group of returning players. Seniors Thomas Haugh, who averaged 17.1 points and 6.1 rebounds per game last season, and Alex Condon (15.1, 7.5) rank third and sixth, respectively, in preseason DRIP, a player performance model which projects offensive, defensive and overall adjusted plus/minus. Junior guard Boogie Fland comes in 13th as well, so the high talent suggests the Gators will compete for a second national championship in three years, and a fourth since 2006.
2. Iowa State (35.81)
The Cyclones have become one of the nation’s more consistent programs under T.J. Otzelberger, with three Sweet 16 trips, in their five consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances, and tied for the 10th-most wins (83) in the last three D-I seasons. They’re led by fifth-year senior Tamin Lipsey, who finished sixth in DRIP last season and trails only Vanderbilt’s Tyler Tanner among returnees this season. With Joshua Jefferson’s departure to the NBA, Lipsey will take on an even bigger leadership role. Junior guard Jaquan Johnson, who averaged 16.9 points at Bradley last season, is fourth in preseason DRIP, giving the Cyclones another scoring option.
3. Duke (34.37)
Duke will have a different look after Cameron Boozer’s departure to the Memphis Grizzlies, but the Blue Devils still have plenty of talent to lean on. Following a heartbreaking buzzer-beater loss to UConn in the Elite Eight, Duke returns 6-foot-11 junior Patrick Ngongba II, who ranks 11th in preseason DRIP and could be ready for a big jump in production. The Blue Devils also added Wisconsin transfer John Blackwell (19.1 ppg, 38.9% on 3-pointers), who ranks in the top 25 for preseason DRIP and will join returning guard Cayden Boozer in the backcourt.
The win projections are averages from the Opta projection model running thousands of 2026-27 regular-season simulations.4. Arizona (30.89)
Ivan Kharchenkov and Motiejus Krivas give Arizona a formidable returning frontcourt. Kharchenkov, an important contributor during the team’s 2026 NCAA Tournament run, and Krivas, the 7-2 Lithuanian center who averaged 10.4 points and 8.2 rebounds, enter the season in the top 20 of preseason DRIP. The Wildcats have some significant production to replace after losing Jaden Bradley, Brayden Burries and Koa Peat, but their returning size and experience help explain their No. 4 preseason TRACR.
5. UConn (30.11)
One win separated Dan Hurley and UConn from another national championship last season (the Huskies fell 69-63 to Michigan in the title game). Senior guard Silas Demary Jr. is 12th in preseason DRIP and will be an important part of the offense after a relatively quiet NCAA Tournament. UConn also brings back Braylon Mullins, who hit the dramatic last-second game-winner against Duke in the Elite Eight.
6. Illinois (29.76)
A Final Four appearance for the first time since 2005 gave Illinois plenty to celebrate last season. Now the Illini will try to build on that success with much of their frontcourt returning. David Mirkovic averaged 13.3 points and 8.0 rebounds as a freshman and ranks in the top 20 of preseason DRIP. The 7-1 Tomislav Ivisic also returns for his senior season, providing scoring and leadership. Although Illinois lost star guard Keaton Wagler to the NBA, the Illini have enough experience up front to remain on a high level.
7. Michigan State (29.42)
Tom Izzo begins his 32nd season at Michigan State with 28 consecutive appearances in the NCAA Tournament. He has another talented roster led by point guard Jeremy Fears Jr., who averaged 15.2 points and 9.4 assists per game last season and ranks ninth in preseason DRIP. He’ll once again have athletic forward Coen Carr as one of his favorite lob targets. With Fears directing the offense and Izzo’s postseason experience, Michigan State has the pieces to be a factor in March.
8. Kansas (28.78)
Kansas has plenty of excitement surrounding its freshman class, led by Tyran Stokes, the No. 1 recruit of the 2026 class. The 6-8, 230-pound guard is expected to make an immediate impact for the Jayhawks, who also added former Purdue standout Trey Kaufman-Renn. The veteran of 147 college games with the Boilermakers was selected by the Minnesota Timberwolves in the second round of the NBA Draft but opted to pursue a sixth year of college eligibility instead. He has since joined Kansas to give it an experienced presence in the frontcourt.
9. Miami (FL) (28.34)
10. BYU (28.28)
BYU was active in the NCAA transfer portal following the departure of AJ Dybantsa, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. The Cougars added Jaxon Kohler from Michigan State and Collin Chandler from Kentucky to help replace Dybantsa’s production. Kohler nearly averaged a double-double last season with 12.5 points and 8.9 rebounds per game and shooting 38.9% on 3s. Replacing Dybantsa won’t be easy, but the additions give BYU the experience and depth to remain competitive.
11. Gonzaga (28.23)
12. Michigan (28.07)
Michigan’s national championship defense comes with some major changes. The Wolverines lost their three best players and head coach to the NBA, leaving a roster that will need several new contributors. Senior guard Elliot Cadeau is one of the key returning players from the championship team, having averaged career highs of 10.5 points and 37.6% from behind the arc and 5.9 assists. Two-year assistant Mike Boynton Jr. was elevated to head coach in the summer.
13. Ohio State (27.83)
14. Houston (27.79)
15. Texas Tech (27.51)
JT Toppin’s return from a season-ending ACL injury is a major storyline for Texas Tech. Before getting hurt, Toppin averaged 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per game. He will be an important part of the Red Raiders offense following Christian Anderson’s departure to the NBA. They also return Donovan Atwell, who set the school’s single-season record with 130 3s, and brought in UNLV transfer guard Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, who averaged 20.7 points per game.
16. Auburn (27.43)
17. Virginia (27.13)
18. Oklahoma (26.95)
19. Alabama (26.82)
Sophomore Amari Allen will have an opportunity to take on a larger role for Alabama following Labaron Philon Jr.’s departure to the NBA. Allen ranks fifth in preseason DRIP after an impressive freshman campaign. Also on the roster is senior guard Aden Holloway, who averaged 16.8 points and shot 43.8% on 3s but missed the NCAA Tournament because of off-court legal issues. His return following a short, early season school suspension will give Alabama another experienced scorer.
20. Purdue (26.61)
Veteran coach Matt Painter faces a new challenge at Purdue following the departure of star point guard Braden Smith and others. Returnee C.J. Cox, who shot 37.3% from beyond the arc last season, will be counted on to take on a larger role in the backcourt. The Boilermakers have been one of the country’s stronger 3-point shooting teams, so maintaining that production with a new nucleus will be key to their success.
21. St. John’s (26.60)
Rick Pitino has some new faces to lead the Red Storm, including Baylor transfer Tounde Yessoufou. He averaged 17.8 points per game last season and ranks in the top 25 for preseason DRIP. Auburn transfer Keyshawn Hall and returning guard Ian Jackson give the squad additional scoring options following the departure of star forward Zuby Ejiofor.
22. Vanderbilt (26.47)
Vanderbilt returns star guard Tyler Tanner, who’s No. 1 in preseason DRIP, averaged 19.5 points and 5.1 assists in a breakout sophomore season. Tanner nearly kept the Commodores’ NCAA Tournament run alive against Nebraska, when his potential game-winning halfcourt shot bounced around the rim before falling out at the buzzer. With Tanner back, Vandy has a chance to build on the 27-win campaign (the program’s most since 1992-93).
23. UCLA (26.32)
24. Louisville (26.13)
25. Georgia (26.11)
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College Basketball Preseason TRACR: Who Are the Top 25 Teams Chasing the National Title? Opta Analyst.
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