Vladimir Putin believes victory over Ukraine is inevitable as his missiles pound the country with near impunity and US policy turns in his favour.
Yet, Moscow is also showing signs of strain deep into the fifth year of war, with the Russian leader facing mounting problems at home and on the battlefield.
Russia is failing to make significant gains on the front line, where thousands are dying every month, and the regime is struggling to replace them. Fears that a covert mobilisation is taking place are on the rise.
Meanwhile, cross-border drone strikes by Ukraine have inflicted deep damage on an energy industry that is the Kremlin’s most vital source of revenue, while expanding to hit commercial nodes in attacks that have brought the war home to more of the Russian population.
As Moscow transitions further to a war economy, the budget for next year demands citizens and businesses give more of their falling incomes to the military as inflation climbs and GDP shrinks.
And with no realistic sign that Moscow is scaling back its war effort, these problems only look set to worsen.
Russian battlefield gains have stalled
Russian forces have made effectively zero progress on a series of failed offensives this year, according to the latest analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington DC.
The think-tank assessed that Russian claims of its territorial gains this year far exceeded reality – which had “made effectively zero net gains in 2026”.
While Russian officials claimed that they had seized 6,500 square kilometres since the start of the year, the ISW put this at closer to 73 square kilometres, and since September the Russians had lost 240 square kilometres – very different picture to Moscow’s claim that it had gained 1,800 square kilometres of land in that time.
Ukraine had decisively defeated Russia’s main offensive that aimed to seize the whole of the Donetsk region by the end of the year, thanks to the success of Ukrainian offensives including Operation Vivaldi, which took back some 277 square kilometres and 16 settlements north of Lyman over the year.
“Ukraine, not Russia, has held the initiative in key sectors of the front line for much of the year”, said the ISW.
The never-ending manpower problem
To add further insult to injury, Russia’s poor battlefield situation has come at the cost of around 40,000 casualties per month, the heaviest losses of the war, according to Ukrainian figures that broadly match those of Western intelligence agencies and independent researchers.
The constant need for replacements has led to aggressive coercion and predatory recruitment practices such as enlisting intoxicated men at police stations and others with health problems. The burden has disproportionately fallen on poorer, rural areas of Russia as Putin seeks to protect the country’s elite.
John Lough, head of foreign policy and Russia specialist at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre think-tank, told The i Paper: “It’s been quite amazing some of the people they have been drafting. These are homeless alcoholics, people with criminal records, people in prisons, and the loss of those lives has been regarded as acceptable.”
The Kremlin has taken steps to tackle draft dodging by preventing young men from leaving the country. Economic activity such as buying a property or owning a business has become contingent on draft papers being in order, according to a Sunday Times report citing leaked documents.
Amid persistent rumours of a new mobilisation, Russia has instituted a form of covert, permanent mobilisation, according to the UK defence think-tank Rusi, with year-round conscription and rolling call-ups of reservists.
Russia has also been forced to look abroad for new recruits. A recent report from Amnesty International found Putin’s regime had resorted to “coercion, fraud and deception” to enlist foreign nationals from countries including Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Egypt, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka, Somalia and South Africa.
Ukraine claims to have captured citizens of 59 countries, including 18 African countries, who were fighting for Russia.
Family members and returnees from the Russian Army demonstrate near the Russian Embassy in Kathmandu, Nepal. A new report highlights the coercive and exploitative practices Russia uses to recruit foreign nationals into its military (Photo: Subaas Shrestha/NurPhoto via Getty)Energy drain
Even as Russia escalates attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid for a fifth winter, its own fuel sector is buckling under a relentless campaign of Ukrainian drone strikes.
Every oil refinery in western Russia has been hit during this campaign, taking out between one-third to half of the country’s refining capacity by different estimates. Just five refineries remain untouched, according to the International Energy Agency.
Officials at Russia’s largest oil company, Rosneft, have warned the company is at risk of permanent damage if the war continues. The firm operates 12 refineries, accounting for about a third of Russia’s total capacity, and some have been struck repeatedly.
The impact has been felt by the Russian public with spiralling costs and long queues at petrol stations amid widespread shortages. This is in line with Ukraine’s strategy to bring the war home to ordinary Russians, said Daniel Sleat, a Russia analyst at King’s College London.
“I think the urban middle class still feels somewhat protected from mass mobilisation, but not from long-range Ukrainian strikes,” Sleat told The i Paper. “The impact the strikes have had on diesel and gasoline outputs and things like the attacks on the Wildberries factories is a strain.”
A controversial diesel deal with US President Donald Trump bought Putin a PR coup, with sanctioned tankers approaching US ports. But industry analysts have raised doubts over Moscow’s ability to fulfil orders due to the damage inflicted on it, with a general export ban still in place. A new assessment from Standard Chartered found Russia was unlikely to be able to increase its diesel output in the near term.
With no viable way of protecting fuel facilities from Ukrainian drones, the Kremlin has resorted to lowering fuel standards and importing supplies from Turkey, India and Morocco. Ukrainian analysts calculate that these measures are short-term fixes that cannot offset ongoing damage to Russia’s energy sector and wider economy.
The first Russian shipment of diesel after the deal between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin is now on its way to the US (Photo: Olga Maltseva/AFP via Getty)Economic decline
New budget proposals sent to Russia’s parliament this month show an ongoing transition to a war economy at the population’s expense.
Spending on defence is projected to grow to 7 per cent of Russian GDP, while ordinary Russians and small businesses face interest rates of 14 per cent and inflation that is approaching 8 per cent – pushing up prices for petrol and household goods.
Citizens have also been hit with numerous tax increases to fund Putin’s war machine including rates of VAT and personal income tax.
This comes amid slashed growth forecasts, an expanding deficit and cuts to investment and infrastructure spending. Welfare, education and healthcare spending is also being reduced to fund the invasion.
Despite the political and economic pressures the Kremlin is facing, Putin thinks victory is close and is promising Russians the end is in sight, said Anna Matveeva of the Russia Institute at King’s College London.
“Putin is signalling to Russians that Ukraine is not going to hold on for very long, that the military campaign has been making good progress and that society just needs to hold on for a few more months,” Matveeva said.
Putin may be counting on assistance from the US and China, she believes, with reports from Russia suggesting a summit with Putin, Trump and Xi Jinping could take place at a conference in China next month, which could be used to cook up a deal to end the war on favourable terms for Russia.
But counting on such a deal – and Ukraine being forced to accept it – could be a bad bet, suggests Lough.
“Putin’s going for the kill, but he’s been notoriously bad at reading Ukraine,” he said. “The key indicator here is the willingness of the Europeans to dig deeper to support Ukraine.”
For Putin, who has shown no desire so far to end his war, the growing pains for the Russian population appear to be a price worth paying.
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