After Diego Gómez’s goal against Crystal Palace, Brighton are closing in on the Premier League record for shots from 50 metres or more in a season. So, we ask: why?
It’s impossible to know whether the increased adoption of expected goals is the sole reason, part of the reason, or plays no part whatsoever, but it’s intriguing that the metric’s popularity has coincided almost perfectly with shots being taken closer to goal.
Perhaps this would have happened regardless of the advancement of football analytics. As coaching improved and became more detailed, teams may well have trained to get the ball closer to goal simply because what xG tells us is already obvious: the closer to goal you shoot from, the more likely you are to score.
Whatever the reason, though, the data proves Premier League football has been based less around shooting from long distance in recent years. The first six seasons for which this data is available (from 2003-04) are the six highest for the proportion of shots taken from outside the penalty area. They are the only seasons on record that have seen more than 45% of shots attempted from range.
And the five most recent, from 2022-23 to 2026-27, have produced the lowest numbers of all seasons on record, each seeing 35% or fewer shots attempted from outside the penalty area. That fits with what we’d expect, given the aforementioned focus on getting the ball closer to goal.
Whether they have been the main driving force behind the change, data-savvy clubs have played a big role. Thomas Frank spoke about “making the chance bigger” while in charge of Brentford, and for three seasons running, his side were among the Premier League’s top two teams for the average xG value of each shot they attempted.
In other words, Brentford, a club known for and who have had huge success with their data-led approach, consistently waited patiently for opportunities to create high-quality chances rather than shooting from long range.
Doing so is the sign of a good team. Teams who can work the ball closer to goal to “make the chance bigger” are going to be able to score goals more reliably. Shooting from distance is a high-risk strategy that has become increasingly unpopular over the years because it is less likely to bring reward.
However, Brighton, another of the Premier League’s most noteworthy and successful proponents of a heavily data-led approach in both their recruitment and their tactics, appear to be bucking the trend.
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